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Follow on Google News | Now Available: "Congo Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011"Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Congo Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 123.7bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 176.2bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 217.7bcm in 2010 should reach 321.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 94bcm to 145bcm in 2015. The Republic of Congo makes no significant current contribution to regional gas supply or demand. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. The Republic of Congo's real GDP rose by an estimated 11.9% in 2010 and we forecast average annual growth of 4.6% from 2010-2015. We see oil demand rising from an estimated 6,900b/d in 2010 to 8,900b/d in 2015. State oil company Societe Nationale des Petroles du Congo (SNPC) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Around a third of the oil produced goes directly to the government and is sold by SNPC on behalf of the state. Thanks to higher recent IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to increase from 305,000b/d in 2010 to a peak of 360,000b/d in 2011, before easing to 332,000b/d in 2015. Gas production should reach 2.0bcm by 2014/15. Consumption is expected to track the production trend. Between 2010 and 2020 we forecast a 1.6% fall in the Republic of Congo's oil and gas liquids production, with volumes peaking at 360,000b/d in 2011 before falling steadily to 300,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 11,300b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 3bcm by the end of the period. With demand moving in line, there is unlikely to be any need for imports or potential for net exports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. RoC is ranked ninth in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now takes eighth place, ahead of Egypt, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings. The county's score benefits from reasonable oil and gas output growth prospects, respectable reserves to production ratios (RPR) and relatively attractive licensing terms. The risk environment is shaky, but this is hardly uncommon in Africa. RoC is at the bottom of the league table in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely. It holds last place, behind Equatorial Guinea, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and forecast GDP per capita growth. The growth outlook for oil consumption and the country's low retail site intensity are relatively strong suits. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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