Global financial crisis not to cut short Indian growth story: Dawnay Day AV Analytics

March 14, 2008 - PRLog -- London, Mar 14: The ongoing turmoil in the global financial markets would impact the country’s bourses but not the strong growth dynamics of the Indian economy which remains largely decoupled even years after its integration with the global market, according to a research report by leading Indian financial analytics firm Dawnay Day AV Analytics.

   “India’s GDP has experienced a high growth rate of over 9% in the last three years….The growth story is unlikely to be cut short by a slowdown in the global economy, mainly because of the strong cushion of extra cash available in the economy,” says the report titled ‘Interlinked Stock Market Inside a Decoupled Economy’ and presented by executive director Shailesh Dhuri here today.

   While the Indian stock markets  that have traditionally followed the cues from global bourses and benchmark indices (eg S&P 500) in hard times  would be substantially influenced by the mayhem in the financial world, the real economy would remain largely shielded due to its protective armours  a healthy banking sector, strong consumption and investment demand, bulging forex reserves and relatively insignificant role of trade in GDP growth.

   Even a flight of hot money is unlikely to dash the great Indian hopes given the large accumulation of spare cash (8.3 % of GDP) and forex reserves ($290.9 bn as of February 8, 2008) in the economy, Mr. Dhuri said, addressing a conference on the impact of a global downturn on the subcontinent, more specifically on China, India and Pakistan.

   Presenting India’s case, he said the domestic bourses, which were driven by strong P/E expansion in the later part of the five-year rally till January 2008, has entered a phase of corrections post January, thus following a long-term trend of increased correlation during times of high volatility.

   Drawing comparisons with the US, the report shows that India’s external debt position and twin deficits (a measure of external and internal claims on government) are far healthier than that of the largest economy in the world. As of FY2007, India’s external debt as a percentage of GDP was 16.47 per cent against 90.26 per cent of the US. These further buttress the claims of a minimal impact of any external shock on India’s long term growth prospects, but points a finger to the unnecessarily conservative ratings of the country from global credit rating agencies.

   “Going forward, India’s rating is only expected to improve, implying a lower risk premium over the long term,” the report concludes.


About Dawnay Day AV Analytics

Dawnay Day AV Analytics is a key emerging company in the fast growing knowledge process outsourcing (KPO) sector in India with a clear focus on financial research and analytics. The company which has extensive capabilities ranging from simple data-compilation to comprehensive financial research, analysis and modeling, offers its services either in the form of exclusive or non-exclusive teams of analysts. The company has a proven track record in the financial research domain and has enabled its clients to enhance business productivity at marginal costs and unleash potential of driving revenue growth.

The entire details of the above mentioned update report is available for download on the company website at http://www.ddavanalytics.com.

Please contact Rohan Parekh on +91(0)22 40059123 / 40 for further details regarding the company's services.

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Dawnay Day AV Analytics is a financial research company providing a full range of research and analytics services to clients based in the US, Europe and Asia. The company which has extensive capabilities ranging from simple data-compilation to financial research, analysis and modeling. The company has a proven track record in the financial research domain and has enabled its clients to enhance business productivity at marginal costs and unleash potential of driving revenue growth.

Website: www.ddavanalytics.com