Betting on a Game?; Better Consult Tax Tables

WASHINGTON - July 24, 2025 - PRLog -- Although it has long been known - and seems quite logical and predictable - that state tax rates affect where professional athletes wish to live and how much they are paid, a new study shows something which is not quite as logical and predictable; that their athletic performance tends to be worse whenever they play an away game in a state with high tax rates.

So perhaps those wishing to bet on the outcome of a game, or simply to impress friends with their predictions, should consult tables to determine the income tax on money earned in that state, says professor John Banzhaf.

The most likely explanation for this phenomena is that professional athletes must pay state taxes on money earned playing in each state based upon that state's income tax rates - which vary from zero to over 13%.

So, because this so-called "jock tax" means that athletes have less after-tax take-home money when they play in a high tax state, they have less incentive to play their best.

For example, playing an away game in Florida creates no income tax liability, whereas for a similar game in California, the state would take over 13% of the athlete's salary; a big different for highly-paid professional athletes.

The study employs some interesting mathematics, says Professor Banzhaf - a mathematician known for his work in game theory, and especially for the "Banzhaf Index" - to measure athlete performance in isolation from the effects of opposing players.

It proves that a state's tax rate affects how well basketball players perform in games played in each state utilizing quantifiable objective statistics such a free throw percentage; a metric likely to affect not only the all-important point spread (the basis for many bets), but also which team wins the game.  Indeed, research suggests that free throw shooting percentage is one of the most significant predictors of a team's success.

Although this study looked only at basketball, it seems likely that the same effect would apply to other high-paying professional sports.

Although not it primary focus, the study also explains why Black football players are more likely to be assigned positions with a higher risk of career-ending injuries and long-term neurological damage.

http://banzhaf.net/   jbanzhaf3ATgmail.com  @profbanzhaf