Trump In NY - Non-Unanimity on Choices May Be OK

Careful Mathematical (Not Legalistic) Analysis Suggests Trump Win
 
WASHINGTON - May 29, 2024 - PRLog -- Many legal commentators and others have loudly and publicly complained about what they see as a major unfairness of Donald Trump's criminal trial in New York: that jurors may find him guilty even if they do not find that the he violated the same law of the three available to support a finding of guilty.

As reported (https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/just-in-judge-merchan-makes-stunning-statement-to-jury-legal-experts-explode-mstef/?utm_source=postup&utm_medium=email), [Judge] Merchan "said three sets of four jurors could find Trump guilty of different crimes, an outcome he would treat as a "unanimous verdict."

But jurors return unanimous verdicts even without agreeing on the same reasons all the time, says public interest law professor John Banzhaf, who provides the following hypothetical examples.

On another important point, while there has been seemingly endless debates about the legalities involved in Trump's New York trial, and various predictions as the outcome based primarily upon these legalities, there has been given very little consideration to the possibility that at least one juror would refuse to vote guilty for reasons having nothing whatsoever to do with the legalities.

Any juror is permitted by law to refuse to vote for a guilty verdict, even if he believes that Trump is clearly guilty based upon the applicable law, if that juror also believes that the prosecution and/or the trial (including both the prosecutors' and/or judge's conduct was so unfair, unjust, unreasonable, or otherwise not in the public interest that the defendant should not be convicted.

Furthermore, he notes, even if the chance that any single juror would exercise his right of nullification is only 5% (1 in 20), the odds are about 50% in favor of a hung jury.  If the odds of any one juror voting this way is only a tiny 2% (1 in 50), there is still an almost 25% (1 in 4) chance that Trump will not be convicted because of nullification.

In short, says Banzhaf, there is a good chance that there will be a hung jury, either because a juror simply likes Trump, or because of the right of nullification.  SEE:
WATCH - What Are The Odds Trump Will Win in NY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CY9yWHBzXRs);  LISTEN (https://wabcradio.com/episode/hour-2-air-heads-05-29-24/);  ANALYSIS - TRUMP MAY WIN! - Nullification Odds Favor a Trump Win in Hush Money Case (http://prsync.com/george-washington-university/trump-may-win---nullification-odds-favor-a-trump-win-in-hush-money-case--calculate-the-probabilities-says-law-professor-mathemat-4150456/)



http://banzhaf.net/  jbanzhaf3ATgmail.com  @profbanzhaf

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