April 29, 2011 -
PRLog -- Syria is located at the very centre of the volatile Middle East. It is a player in several of the region's disputes and this puts it at risk of retaliatory action. On the other hand, none of the forces, or countries, with which Syria collaborates is really an ally - none could be counted on to defend Syria if it were to be attacked. Syria has always relied on other countries, notably in the past the Soviet Union, for its military hardware as there is no military manufacturing base in the country. Most of its hardware is therefore ageing and in a doubtful state of repair. So, despite the large size of the Syrian military (the fourth-largest in the region and well over twice the size of Israel's), it is not considered strong enough to protect the country from any concerted external attack. Syria is presently walking the tightrope at present in trying to keep its old alliances while at the same time building bridges, or at least non-belligerent relationships, with countries such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States. In this effort it is being increasingly successful, but risks disillusioning the more radical elements in doing so. In our view, while the external situation is fraught, it is internal pressures that will be more important through the present planning period to 2015. President Bashar al-Assad and his Ba'ath party regime appear secure for now. A major plus is thatal- Assadis still only 44, even after a decade in power. Unlike many countries in the region then there is no looming issue of succession to be negotiated. On the other hand, this is a one party state and the ruling elite are from the Alawi minority (a Shi'a group in a majority Sunni population). The most pressing issues are essentially economic. Syria has a large and rapidly growing population but an economy that is incapable of generating enough jobs to support even the present workforce. Unemployment is unofficially estimated at 25%, with the population continuing to grow faster than the jobs market. In a second issue, 20% of GDP is generated from agriculture but drought (exacerbated by climate change) is driving people from the land to the already over stretched cities of Damascus, Aleppo and Hama. There is little Syria can do to ease its water shortages because it is a downstream state, with the waters of the Euphrates controlled by upstream Turkey. While we still believe the Assad regime can muddle through, in this report we discuss four possible scenarios that could develop over the coming decade.
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