“Country Risk Service Macedonia February 2011” added to ReportBuyer.com

Feb. 15, 2011 - PRLog -- ReportBuyer.com has added a new report http://www.reportbuyer.com/go/EIU03230

Overview

The Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party of Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) renewed its mandate to govern until 2012 with its election victory in June 2008. The ruling coalition—which includes the largest ethnic Albanian party, the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI)—consolidated its control with victories in the presidential and local elections in March and April 2009. However, there is a risk that inter-ethnic tensions, reawakened by the economic downturn, could damage the DUI's relations with the VMRO-DPMNE. This would further delay reforms mandated by the Ohrid agreement, which ended a six-month insurgency by ethnic Albanian militants in 2001. The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates real GDP growth of 0.8% in 2010, helped by net exports. We forecast growth to accelerate to 2.4% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012. After shrinking to an estimated 3.7% of GDP in 2010 from 7.4% in 2009, we forecast an average current-account deficit of 5% of GDP in 2011-12, as import growth stays subdued.

Key changes from last month

Political outlook

During the first three weeks of January tobacco farmers staged a series of protests, with demonstrations in front of parliament and road blockages to demand extra government support. A poll in January by the International Republican Institute (IRI) gave the VMRO-DPMNE 27% support, significantly ahead of the Social Democratic Alliance of Macedonia (SDSM) with 16%.

Economic policy outlook

Zoran Stavreski, the finance minister, expressed the view that domestic banks will reduce interest rates in 2011. Bankers responded to Mr Stavreski's comments by saying that they did not expect the reductions to be drastic.

Economic forecast

Real GDP grew by 1.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2010, compared with -1.3% and 1.1% in the first and second quarters respectively, boosted by stronger household consumption. Higher employment, which increased by 21,664 compared with the second quarter, and a rise in real wages drove household consumption in the third quarter.

This report covers the following industry codes:

SIC Code: 60;48;10;70
NAICS Code: 52;517;212;11;72


Country Risk Service Macedonia February 2011:  published 2/1/2011  is available at:
http://www.reportbuyer.com/countries/europe/macedonia/cou...

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