Aon Chase Guide - Is It A Two-Horse Race?

Feb. 9, 2011 - PRLog -- Key Race Stats

Paul Nicholls has won 6 of the last 10 runnings
Denman was the short-priced faller 12 months ago
The favourite has won 3 of the last 9 runnings
Only one winner in the last nine years aged in double figures
7 and 8 year-olds have the best recent record, winning 7 of the last 9

RIVERSIDE THEATRE (Nicky Henderson): On the ratings, this one looks thrown in - having 6lbs in hand on his nearest rival What A Friend, and still getting 4lbs from him, meaning he’s around 10lbs well in. Yes, we all know these good things can often come back to bite us, but of the two he also comes into the race with the better form.

We, of course, last saw Riverside Theatre running second to his stablemate Long Run (beaten 12 lengths) in the King George VI Chase last month and on that running he’s clearly the one to beat. The quicker ground here should also play to his strengths, while he’s no stranger to the Berkshire track having run here four times in the past – 3rd NH Flat, 1st & 2nd Hurdles and 1st Beginners Chase.

Finally, although Paul Nicholls is the trainer with the best recent record in the race, it’s worth noting Nicky Henderson is no stranger to landing this contest – he won it back in 2002 with Bacchanal.

WHAT A FRIEND (Paul Nicholls):  I’ve already highlighted just what a good record Paul Nicholls has in the race (6/10), while let’s not forget 12 months ago when he still won the race (Tricky Trickster) despite his main hope Denman crashing out.  We last saw this one running below par in the Betfair Chase behind Imperial Commander (beaten 14 ½ lengths) back in November, but with the second that day, Tidal Bay, running well in the Argento Chase recently the run might not be as bad as first thought.

He’s won on soft, but the quicker conditions here will be in his favour too, while in terms of track experience we all remember his close second to Denman in the 2009 Hennessy. However, with his Grade One penalty (Lexus Chase & totesport Bowl) and the fact he ran so badly last time out, albeit back in November, he’ll need Riverside Theatre to be slightly below par in my book.

Of the others: Noland is back in action after being pulled up at Cheltenham last time, and Nicholls took this 12 months ago with his second-stringed runner, but he’s never run here at Newbury before while this will be longest trip he’s ever tackled. He’s not totally out of it on his old form, but backers will be hoping this extended distance will bring out the necessary improvement.

Fair Along is back over the bigger obstacles after running ninth behind Grands Crus in the Cleeve Hurdle a few weeks ago and of those at a price he’s the one that makes most appeal. He landed a Novice Chase here at Newbury back in 2006, while his record over fences reads an impressive – placed 7 times from 9 outings (3 wins). Also, let’s not forget Hobbs’ 9 year-old was third in a Queen Mother Champion Chase and second in the 2007 Arkle.  

Recommended Bet

3pts win RIVERSIDE THEATRE
1pt place FAIR ALONG

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