Denmark v England Preview

Fabio Capello has yet another depleted England squad to contend with and the Three Lions may struggle to hit top form in their friendly against Denmark.
By: Andy Newton
 
Feb. 9, 2011 - PRLog -- Kick-Off: Wednesday, 19:15 ITV1


The visitors will be without their captain and vice-captain, Rio Ferdinand and Steven Gerrard, while Peter Crouch, Ben Foster and Gabriel Agbonlahor have also pulled out. This means an inexperienced centre-back will partner John Terry (either Joleon Lescott, Michael Dawson or Gary Cahill), while Gerrard’s absence means Frank Lampard is the only midfielder in the squad to have scored more than 3 international goals. In attack, meanwhile, Jermaine Defoe and Wayne Rooney are the only strikers with extensive England experience – and it’s very unlikely Capello will play either of them for the full 90 minutes.

There are also serious concerns over form and tactics. England’s last two games have been a dire 0-0 draw against Montenegro (when the visitors easily stifled the Three Lions with a basic 4-5-1 formation), followed by a comprehensive 2-1 defeat to France at Wembley. And it is now widely accepted that Capello’s insistence on starting with a 4-4-2 for almost every game is a huge hindrance. A basic glance at England’s results show they struggle to win against any side that plays an extra midfielder. The last 4 games England have failed to win were against France (who played 4-2-3-1), Montenegro (4-5-1), Germany (4-2-3-1) and Algeria (3-4-2-1). And it’s surely no co-incidence that arguably their best performance of recent times, the 3-1 against Switzerland in September, was against a side who played a basic 4-4-1-1 system. Of course tactics alone can’t be the basis for having a bet but it is very apparent that England badly struggle to win against any formation that includes an extra midfielder.

I believe Denmark are usually an over-rated side by odds compilers, as their lacklustre start to Euro 2012 qualifying would suggest, but  long-serving coach Morten Olsen has done well to get the best out of a small pool of talent. He has a core of trusted players which were retained after the World Cup, notably Dennis Rommedahl, Christian Poulsen, Simon Kjær and Lars Jacobsen, but he is now trying to bed in some talented youngsters in his normal 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 system. Christian Eriksen is a very exciting 18 year-old playmaker from Ajax, while new Man United goalkeeper Anders Lindegaard and Groningen forward Nicklas Pedersen have both been given extended playing time in the Euro qualifiers. And crucially, Olsen’s normal tactical system of attractive football based around possession is perfectly suited to taking on England’s system.

Given Denmark are almost at full strength for this game, coupled with England’s poor form and big name absentees, and it’s hard to see how the hosts should be as big as 11/5 to win this game.  Fabio Capello has shown little willingness to permanently abandon the system that failed so spectacularly at the 2010 World Cup and until he does, England are likely to be over-valued by bookmakers for the foreseeable future. We tipped France to turn over the Three Lions in their last outing and the ‘draw no bet’ market seems the sensible call once again here (covering the draw in friendly games is normally advised for obvious reasons).

Recommended Bet – Denmark Draw No Bet @ 5/4

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Source:Andy Newton
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Tags:Football Betting, Football Odds, Denmark V England, Lampard Betting, Rooney Odds
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