New Market Research Report: Yemen Defence & Security Report 2011

New Defense market report from Business Monitor International: "Yemen Defence & Security Report 2011"
Feb. 3, 2011 - PRLog -- In 2010, BMI estimates that Yemen's defence spending totalled US$1.322bn, or US$54.50 per capita, growing 11.22% from US$1.189bn in 2009. Defence expenditure stayed steady at 4.2% of GDP, one of the highest levels in the world, and grew from 11.6% to 13.2% of government expenditure, a high proportion by most countries' standards.

In 2011, we expect spending to rise 2.66% to US$1.357bn. Though this will represent a 7% shrinkage in constant price terms, expenditure will increase to 14.5% of government spending.

Over the remainder of the forecast period, to 2019, we expect defence spending to rise relatively rapidly in nominal terms, with annual growth rates generally between 8.0% and 9.5%. By 2019, BMI forecasts that defence expenditure will total US$2.630bn, or US$85.30 per capita. It is indicative of Yemen's deeply serious security problems that this is likely to account for 25% of government spending, a massive allocation of resources for a country with serious development challenges in almost every other area, including infrastructure, health care and education. Nonetheless, defence outlay is likely to remain at 4.2% of GDP.

The government of Ali Abdullah Saleh is under renewed short-term pressure and the seeming inability of the regime to tackle major social, economic and political pressures could presage a destabilisation of the state over the long term. Though Gulf States will provide a level of political and military support, particularly to stem the Houthi rebellion, this will not be enough to secure a full victory for President Saleh's government. In this context, security will continue to unravel and the government will find it difficult to hold the centre. However, the conditions for a major change in Yemen's trajectory could yet emerge. These are broadly (a) increased democratisation; (b) revolution (c) a coup; and (d), the country split into two component parts, north and south, as in the pre-1990 period.

Developments in the fourth quarter of 2010 were telling: firstly, it was allegedly revealed that the Yemeni government had indeed encouraged the US to operate against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in the country, and secondly, AQAP stepped up attacks on the Houthis. It is clear that the situation is becoming more volatile and unpredictable, and the former revelations may galvanise support behind AQAP to a degree by enraging Yemeni nationalists.

The nature of US military involvement in Yemen is changing. Funding for equipment and training to support Yemeni counterterrorism operations is increasing rapidly, and although US authorities have ruled out any direct military operations in the country, drone attacks have already become commonplace. Furthermore, the channelling of funding through the Department of Defence, rather than the usual State Department channels, indicates the growing influence of the military over US policy in Yemen.

AQAP has been accused of ramping up sectarian tensions in Yemen, staging two large attacks on Houthi rebels, al-Qaeda has allegedly been responsible for attacks on Shiites and Shia monuments in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein, and the prospect of a glut of sectarian violence in Yemen is yet another disturbing feature of the country's deteriorating security situation.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Yemen Security SWOT
- Yemen Defence Industry SWOT
- Yemen Political SWOT
- Yemen Economic SWOT
- Yemen Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- Global Hotspots
- Table: Global Election Timetable, 2010 And 2011
- Latin America: More Of The Same
- Western Europe
- Central Europe
- South Eastern Europe
- Russia And The Former Soviet Union
- Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending
- Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China
- Wild Cards
Global Security Outlook
Middle East Security Overview
- The Middle East In A Global Context
- Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
- The Outlook For The Middle East
Security Risk Analysis
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
- Domestic Politics
- Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- Latest Developments
- Table: Yemeni Insurgent Groups
- Historical Background
- External Security Situation
- Latest Developments
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2008 (including conscripted)
- Army
- Navy
- Air Force
- International Deployments
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Structure
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends And Developments
- Latest Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Yemen's Armed Forces, 2000-2008 ('000 personnel)
- Table: Yemen's Defence Personnel - Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49)
- Table: Yemen's Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
- Table: Yemen's Defence Expenditure And % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
- Table: Yemen's Arms And Ammunition Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
- Table: Yemen's Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
- Table: Yemen's Arms And Ammunition Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Macroeconomic Forecast

Full Table of Contents is available at:

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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Tags:Yemeni, Security, Suspected, Rebel, Bombing, Raids, Houthi, Conflict, Fighting, Terrorist
Industry:Defense, Government, Research
Location:Massachusetts - United States
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