Real Estate vs. the Inverted Yield Curve
Los Angeles, CA. An inverted yield curve is an interest rate situation in which long-term debt instruments have a lower yield than short-term debt instruments of the same credit quality. This type of yield curve is the rarest of the three main curve
By: CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE STUDIES
This may be a warning sign for recessions, but they are shocking as timing indicators for selling real estate investments. Unlike trade conflicts, an inverted yield curve by itself has limited economic impact. Instead, its signal about the health of the economy is what matters, and it is not as negative as some investors fear. Historically, there has been a long and variable lag between initial yield curve months for the last five recessions. Additionally, the length of time the yield curve is inverted, and by how much, matters. If Fed rate cuts successfully steepen the curve into positive territory, this brief curve inversion may be a premature recession signal. Neither does a yield curve inversion indicate it is time to sell real estate investments. Since 1975, after an inversion in the 2-year/10-year yield curve, real estate continued to rally.
So hold on to your hat and try to enjoy the ride. Remember, one of the best lessons you can learn in life is to remain calm.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci, is considered to be one of the foremost authorities on real estate taxation and real estate investing and has authored books in these fields published by John Wiley & Sons of New York. He is the Director of the Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research organization. To learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit our web site at http://www.calstatecompanies.com