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GTC Advisors – UK General Election Just Two Days Away
GTC Advisors is a 100% Independent, privately owned Boutique Investment Advisory Firm offering services to retail, corporate and high net worth individuals.
June is a busy month for economic news and guidance and the elections in Britain look to complicate what could have been a mixed bag of results.
At the moment, the Conservative party, under Theresa May, looks set to retain the top position despite recent terrorist events that have opened more topics than usual and far more stern language than many would expect for what is essential an election to see who will guide the UK through its Brexit.
Security threats aside, the UK economy and specifically the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 have seen significant gains since last year's vote to leave the Eurozone. Whilst every day there are reports and news articles bemoaning the move out of Europe, economic data and the general sentiment that the country can and will do better out of the European Union continues to grow. What is of concern is what will happen should the Labour party manage to take the election?
Will they look to reverse the decision made last year even though the public has been told this is now impossible. Would another referendum be offered to give the voters another opportunity to decide?
With Jeremy Corbyn's track record, the UK should be safe from that scenario, however, given the fact that he is a rather Eurosceptic MP, the chances of him going to bat when negotiations start aren't really too apparent and the real concerns are to how much the UK will end up losing at the end of the 2 years due to his indifference of the whole situation.
For that reason, amongst others, most analysts and commentators believe that the Conservative party will continue to hold the reins over the next 5 years and see through the Brexit negotiations to completion. Theresa May was a Remain campaigner and now looks to walk the path of Brexiteer, leading from the front. However, as with Cameron's surprise resignation after last year's referendum, what's to say that May won't look to step aside as soon as her party has won the country's vote.
What we can say for sure is that with the other economic news coming out of the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and also the ECB, June is going to be an important month for the global markets and how they will look to perform over the remainder of the year.
The Federal Reserve should look to provide some more indications as to when the next rate rise will be and this should help stabilize the US markets whilst they react to the almost daily scandals and shock news coming from the Whitehouse. That being said, the 3 major indexes have shown exceptional gains YTD and if earnings continue the way they have so far, 2017 should prove to be a strong year for investors in the US markets.
In Europe, the ECB is seen as looking to provide no real guidance as to whether they will be reducing the current stimulus programs. Mario Draghi has said he would like it to continue for the foreseeable future. This in itself is of concern as despite vast bailout resources being made available to Greece for instance, there has been no real improvement in the Eurozones economic figures.
It's just 2 days until the UK General Election, good luck to all those involved and taking part.
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