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Investment Advisor Matt Golab Talks About the Market and When it Might Correct
Matt Golab states, "Over the last five years we have all heard the screaming of some of the well known "Doomsday" economists and money managers that a market correction was coming."
But even the Fed’s efforts may not be enough in 2014 and especially as they tone down their bond buying (tapering). Mark Hulbert from MarketWatch brings us six ratios that indicate a correction is coming soon. You can read the article by clicking the link below.
For those of us who love the book summary, here's the highlights:
“Here’s how the market stacks up to past market tops according to these six valuation ratios.
Price/earnings ratio. Calculated by dividing stock price by earnings per share, this is perhaps the most widely followed of all valuation ratios. Based on the previous 12 months’ earnings, the S&P 500’s current P/E ratio is 18.6, which is higher than those that prevailed at 24 of the 35 bull market tops since 1900. (Data before 1957 are for the S&P Composite Stock Index, since the S&P 500 didn’t exist yet.)
Cyclically adjusted P/E ratio. This is the version of the P/E championed by Yale University (http://www.marketwatch.com/
Dividend yield. This is the percentage of a company’s stock price that is represented by its total annual dividends. Since this yield tends to fall as prices rise, and vice versa, the market should register some of its lowest readings near its tops. The S&P 500’s yield currently stands at 2.0%, which is lower than the comparable yields that prevailed at all but five of the bull-market tops since 1900.
Price/sales ratio. This is calculated by dividing a company’s stock price by its per-share sales. Though it is lesser known, it still is championed by many investors because it is based on data that are less susceptible to manipulation than earnings. For the S&P 500, the price/sales ratio currently stands at 1.6, which is higher than the comparable readings that prevailed at all but two of the bull market tops since 1955, which is how far back data are available.
Price/book ratio. This is another lesser-known valuation indicator, calculated by dividing a company’s stock price by its per-share book value—an accounting measure of net worth. For the S&P 500, this ratio currently stands at 2.7, which is higher than all but five of the 28 bull-market tops since the mid-1920s, which is how far back data are available.
“Q” ratio. This indicator is based on research conducted by the late James Tobin, the 1981 Nobel laureate in economics. It is similar to the price/book ratio, except that book value is substituted by the replacement cost of assets.
Mr. Tobin thought believes replacement cost is a better reflection of a company’s net worth than book value, which is based on assets’ original cost — no matter how far in the past those assets were acquired.
The Q ratio currently is higher than what prevailed at 31 of the 35 past market tops, according to data compiled by Stephen Wright, an economics professor at the University of London, and Andrew Smithers, founder of the U.K.-based economics-consulting firm Smithers & Co.”
No one knows when the market will correct or have a serious downturn. The key to investing is to gain as much of the upside when the markets are good and avoiding the downside when markets have corrections.
How to do this is one of the mysteries in retirement planning. If you want to know more reach out to us directly at 916-509-7227 or visit us at www.aaronmatthewsfinancial.com
Matt Golab was recruited to write a chapter in Tom Hopkins recent book, Victory which became a National Best Seller. Matt also received the Editors Choice Award for his contribution to Victory, not every contributor is selected for this high honor.
Matt is an authority on creating innovative tax and investment solutions to help his clients succeed in their retirement years. The strategies Matt Golab has established and passed on through successful financial planning with hundreds of clients over the years has launched him into the national spotlight.
He is often featured in Retirement Advisor Magazine, a publication which attracts the top financial planners in the country. Matt has been featured in newspapers around the country passing on the principals for a successful retirement. Golab is often asked by national websites that focus on the education of consumers to present his knowledge on the areas of retirement and retirement income plans. Matt is frequently featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, MSN Money, The San Francisco Chronicle, Newsweek, TheSmartRetiree, Burlington County Times and appeared nationwide on ABC, CBS, Fox, and NBC as well as USA Today.
Matt has a weekly radio show where he discusses all aspects of retirement planning, total wealth management, and estate strategies. Through his relationship with Retirement Radio Network experts such as David Walker former Comptroller General of the United States, Harry Dent of the H.S. Dent Foundation, John Bogle of the Vanguard Funds and many more have been heard on his show Income Forever.
Golab is the Author of The Consumer's Guide to Planning Your Retirement: Your Guide to Mental Peace and Financial Well Being. Matt Golab continues to expand the geographic reach of his audience and desires to bring his expertise to a nationwide television audience. Matt emphatically states his mission, “I want to change the way Americans view their retirement. They can succeed (stay retired) regardless of what happens in the market". Contact information for Matt is available at his website,
Investment Advisory Services offered through Global Financial Private Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor.