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Market Commentary and Forecast (Week of August 13th, 2012)
The Olympics are over, the core of Earnings Season is over, what will we do now to fill the void......oh yes, the political season is really just beginning.
Economic reports have been "ok to good". Nothing standing out as extremely bad or good. The lack of very bad or good economic news has been keeping investors on the fence, but money is ready to go to work. Traders and investors are waiting on Bernanke's decision on future Quantitative Easing (part 3) and may get a decision by the end of August at the Jackson Hole economic meetings. If he commits or eludes to some type of bond buying, this will push the markets higher, above and beyond the political season lift. If he does not commit to any bond buying, we could see a 2%-4% pullback in the market, which would be a good short-term buying (or accumulation)
Market Direction: Our target range on the S&P 500 Index Levels of 1,400 - 1,425 by end of August still stands. A top range on the S&P 500 of 1,420 - 1,440 by the Presidential Elections is expected if the Europeans can begin to agree on bailout amounts and policies for payback (these talks seem like they have substance recently). The "Fiscal Cliff" issue is important, but we are not in the eleventh hour yet (this will be a political talking point for the next 4 1/2 months, enjoy).
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