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|  Just Released: "Pakistan Defence & Security Report Q3 2012"New Defense market report from Business Monitor International: "Pakistan Defence & Security Report Q3 2012"
By: Fast Market Research, Inc. The report also examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that Pakistan remains highly vulnerable by virtue of a combination of circumstances: BMI considers relations with four countries - Afghanistan, China, India and the United States - to be of paramount important to Pakistan's geopolitical outlook. China remains Pakistan's key defence ally, while relations with India have shown some recent signs of improvement, especially on the trade side. However, ties with Kabul remain strained, and the US relationship - once so important in the wake of 9/11 - is still at rock bottom six months after an American air strike inadvertently resulted in the deaths of 28 Pakistani soldiers. Having said that, in mid-May Islamabad was starting to suggest that it might now be ready to start mending fences in its relationship with Washington, with economics as much as security the motivating factor. ------------------------------------------------------------ Full Report Details at - http://www.fastmr.com/ ------------------------------------------------------------ Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: * The latest developments in Pakistan's rocky relationship are reviewed in detail. These include the visit of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) commanders to Pakistan in March, and Pakistani plans to attend the NATO summit in Chicago in late May. Islamabad has also signalled its intention to reopen the NATO supply route to Afghanistan after a six-month hiatus. However, continuing US drone strikes in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) region continue to cause severe tension. * The instability of Pakistan's political establishment has continued, with Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gillani being found guilty on contempt of court charges, but still managing to remain in post after only a token custodial sentence was imposed. His opponents continue to try to unseat him, however, and the instability in Islamabad has ongoing implications for the country's economy and security. * Relations with India are relatively upbeat, with concerted efforts being made on both sides to normalise economic ties. In terms of security, the deaths of 129 Pakistani soldiers in an avalanche in the disputed Siachen region led to calls from civilian and military leaders in Pakistan for the area to be demilitarised. India is considering the proposal, but will require assurances that Islamabad will not try to take strategic advantage of any withdrawal. * Pakistan's reliance on China for defence materiel continues, with a new Chinese-built fast attack craft for the Pakistan Navy arriving during Q2. A first export order for their jointly developed JF-17 fighter aircraft remains elusive, however. Report Table of Contents: SWOT Analysis - Pakistan Security SWOT - Pakistan Defence Industry SWOT - Pakistan Political SWOT - Pakistan Economic SWOT - Pakistan Business Environment SWOT Global Political Outlook - Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013 - Global Flashpoints: - Table: Election Timetable, Q312-Q113 - Wild Cards To Watch South Asia Security Overview - The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s Security Risk Analysis - Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings - Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index Political Overview - Domestic Politics - No Gilani Appeal: PPP Risks More Political Fallout - Foreign Policy - A Normalisation Of Pakistan-US Relations? - Table: Pakistan's Political Overview - Long-Term Political Outlook - Instability To Prevail, But Outright Collapse Unlikely - Table: Scenario Matrix - Evolution Of State - Table: Scenario Matrix - Centrifugal Versus Centripetal Forces Security Overview - Internal Security Situation - External Security Situation Armed Forces And Government Spending - Armed Forces - Deployments And Exercises - Table: Pakistan's Deployments - Weapons Of Mass Destruction - Table: Pakistan's Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missile Arsenal - Nuclear Developments - Table: Exports From Pakistan Market Overview - Arms Trade Overview Industry Trends And Developments - Procurement Trends And Developments Industry Forecast Scenario - Armed Forces - Table: Pakistan's Defence Personnel, 2000-2008 ('000, unless otherwise stated) - Table: Pakistan's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) - Defence Expenditure - Table: Pakistan's Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 - Table: Pakistan's Defence Expenditure - Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) - Defence Trade - Table: Pakistan's Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) - Table: Pakistan's Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) - Table: Pakistan's Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) - Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario - Macroeconomic Forecast - Poor Data Suggests Continued Macro Weakness Company Profiles - Air Weapons Complex - Dr AQ Khan Laboratories - Heavy Industries Taxila - Pakistan Aeronautical Complex - Pakistan Ordnance Factories Pakistan Demographic Outlook - Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) - Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) - Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 - Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 BMI Methodology - How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts - Defence Industry - Sources About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. End
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