Bonds: Where Do We Go From Here? | Macro Millionaire Coaching Program and Trading Service

July 7, 2011 - PRLog -- There is nothing like coming back from vacation and seeing all your shorts go to zero. Well, they almost did. My bet that bond prices would fall going into the end of QE2 paid off big time, with the (TLT) September $103 calls that I sold at 74 cents now trading at a lowly, almost cowering 20 cents.

It is always nice to get an assist, and I certainly got one on this trade with a warning from Standard and Poors about how dire America’s debt prospects really are. These were not new estimates, but they certainly set the cat among the bond holding pigeons, especially when cast against a backdrop of Greek unrest. Like, this could be us in five years?

Since we are all only as good as our last trades, the question arises of what to do next. Unfortunately, the pickings out there are pretty thin. I think we are trapped in a narrowing range that in terms of the ten year Treasury yield now looks to be 2.85%-4.00%, with the last tick appearing on my screen at 3.15%. The (TLT) dropped a dramatic 5 points in a week, while the double short ETF (TBT) soared by an awesome 10%. So whatever you do, don’t short bonds right here.

Wait a couple weeks, and you should get another chance to put this short on. The current round of “RISK OFF” should exhaust itself by mid to late July, once Q2 earnings are out. Then we will be looking into the abyss of the August 2 debt crisis. 

I expect a deal to be struck, but only after both parties have milked this issue for maximum political advantage, with negotiations going on to the last second of the last minute of the last hour before midnight. The fear this will generate, especially among foreign investors, should be enough to drive yields back to the high 2.90% area.

I am not buying the Armageddon predictions that you hear daily on the tube. Inflation is not hitting anytime soon, driving ten year yields to 5%-6%. I’m sorry, but 2% GDP growth just doesn’t get you there. Nor are we headed towards a hyper deflationary bond bubble that takes yields to 2%. We are growing, but not just very much, and certainly without any new hires. We may have to wait until well into next year for that scenario to unfold.

I know this sounds pretty boring, but that is what the economic data are telling us. At least until it changes.

If you’d like to sit side by side with John Thomas and let him help you multiply your portfolio like a winning hedge-fund manager then he’e happy to mentor you and share his specific trades as he makes them just

Click here to get details on Macro Millionaire coaching program & trading service

http://forexprofitmultiplier.info/category/macro-millionaire-program/

What is the Macro Millionaire Coaching Program?

The Macro Millionaire Coaching Program is a mixture of mentoring, teaching, and giving. Within the coaching program itself, John Thomas will be holding regularaly scheduled webinars where he will discuss strategy, opportunities, and the markets. Also during these webinars, there will be a Question & Answer period for you to pick John Thomas’s brain.

This was the part of mentoring and teaching.

However, there is also the giving aspect, which also provides teaching in the same manner. When you join the Macro Millionaire Coaching Program, you will get the following:

John Thomas’s active trading portfolio with specific buy, sell, and stop loss instructions.

You will get email trade alerts sent directly to your inbox whenever John makes a move - with all the details you need to execute the trade. Plus, a concise explanation of what he is trading and why.

You will get his model portfolio - including his complete watchlist of assets to buy on dips, sell into rallies, and to prepare to short.

You’ll know more about what’s going on in the global economy than most full time traders through his daily global market commentary.


With this program, it will be like your trading side by side with John Thomas. 99% of the trades you make with John, will be the same as he’s making in his hedge fund.

# # #

Forex Profit Multiplier | Brand New Forex Education & Training Course. Top ranking forex strategies. Best choice for your Forex Trading Software.