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Premier eFinance: Aluminium prices expected to remain stable for 2011.
Industry specialists and delegates attending a recent aluminium conference held in Chicago expect stable to higher prices and premiums.
By: Premier eFinance
A survey of the more than 200 delegates attending the conference showed that 75% expect relatively stable London Metal Exchange prices averaging $2,400 to $2,600 a metric ton in 2012. Fifty-eight percent anticipated that the regional premium they pay would increase next year.
Founder and manager of Harbor Intelligence, Jorge Vazquez, was more optimistic, saying he is expecting a three-year uptrend with prices “north of $3,000 from 2012 on.” This translates to around $1.35 a pound.
Chinese production will fill a large portion of any global aluminum output gap, but support nonetheless will come from a lack of cheap energy and environmental and political issues, including the time it takes to build a smelter in Western nations, Vazquez told Premier eFinance.
Vazquez went on to say that aluminum demand has reached new highs and an internal deficit in the key commodity-consuming nation of China is widening. Visible inventories in the country more than halved in last year, while consumers/traders heavily de-stocked at least 3.5 million metric tons up to June. In theory, China could become a net importer of aluminum, even though ten fully committed, verified expansion projects are coming in the next 18 months, Vazquez said.
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