Wikistrat Releases Summary of Syrian Regime Stability Simulation

May 16, 2011 - PRLog -- Wikistrat has released a summary of its latest wiki-based simulation, “Syria Regime Stability.”  Dozens of analysts and contributors from around the world participated in the simulation in an effort to determine the most likely outcome of the mass protests taking place in Syria.

Wikistrat’s Syrian Regime Stability simulation analysed the uprising in Syria using Wikistrat’s unique platform.  Wikistrat’s analysts and subscribers, led by Chief Analyst Thomas PM Barnett, collaborated online to examine the Syrian regime’s stability and whether Syrian President Bashar Assad was likely to retain power.  Participants sought to answer vital questions, examining the effect on regional stability, the implications of Syria’s relationship with Iran, and the extent to which terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah would benefit from changes in Syria’s government.  

Several scenarios were plotted by Ryan Mauro, Strategic Analyst with Wikistrat and creator of worldthreats.com:
•   Assad retains control and quells dissent;
•   Assad institutes political and economic reforms to pacify the protestors;
•   Iran intervenes to prop up the Syrian leader;
•   Assad is replaced by a more moderate leadership;
•   Assad is removed and the Muslim Brotherhood comes to power.

Simulation participants determined that Assad's future will depend on the loyalty of the army. “The plausibility of Assad emerging from the current crisis, with his leadership intact, depends heavily on the continued allegiance of the army… His commanders, most of whom are Alawite loyalists, appear firm in their support,” argued Trevor Westra, a Contributing Analyst and the creator of theolog.ca. While his situation is still tenuous, most participants argued that Assad is expected to remain in power, unless drastic steps are undertaken by his own military or by NATO.

The spectre of intervention by Iran was deemed unlikely by some of the simulation participants. Mark Safranski, of zenpundit.com, added that “I have great difficulty imagining Israel and the United States tolerating, say, 25,000 – 50,0000 IRGC in combined arms units operating in Syria on behalf and in conjunction with the Syrian Army, slaughtering thousands of Syrians.”

Intervention by the US was seen as equally implausible under the current situation. Professor Robert Edwin Kelly, of asiansecurityblog, argued that “the ‘responsibility to protect’ (R2P) threshold must stay somewhat high, otherwise the West could get chain-ganged into multiple human rights interventions that will increasingly look to Arab audiences like neo-imperialism.”

By incorporating possible scenarios, impacts on the countries involved in the region and diverse policy options for these countries, Wikistrat simulations give its analytic community a continually evolving up-to-date model of the geopolitical reality, rather than a static document.

The full summary of the simulation can be accessed at http://thomaspmbarnett.com/globlogization/2011/5/16/syria....

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