Latest Vantage Virginia Leading Economic Index Shows Continued Growth In Commonwealth

April 21, 2011 - PRLog -- February’s Vantage Virginia LEI stood at 1.12 versus 0.51 in January.

“Two consecutive months of growth and positive LEI figures was a welcomed sight after the index’s brief dip in to negative territory in December,” said Vantage founder and chief economist John Stewart. “As a leading index, the Virginia Leading Economic Index tells us that growth will come to the commonwealth for the next two to five months. This implies growth will potentially continue through July of 2011.”

Developed to help predict economic conditions, the Vantage LEI is calculated at a national level and for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. As a leading indicator, it projects expected economic activity for the next two to five months. A value above 0 indicates economic growth and a value below 0 indicates stabilization or contraction. The Vantage National LEI for February was 1.17.

The Vantage Virginia LEI bottomed in May of 2009, well after the bottom of the Vantage National LEI in February 2009. Nationally, the recession officially ended in June 2009; for the commonwealth the Vantage Virginia LEI implies an initial recession end in Virginia of October or November 2009. However, Virginia has had much more difficulty in finding economic stability compared to the national average. The Vantage Virginia LEI actually worsened after November 2009.  After becoming positive in April 2010 it moved back in to negative territory between September and December 2010. February 2011 marks the second consecutive monthly increase in the Vantage Virginia LEI.

“Employment in Virginia has been very flat since June 2010. In fact it took drops recently in October and December 2010, which indicates the commonwealth’s economy is still quite vulnerable,” Stewart explained. “Not surprisingly then the changes in jobs for Virginia have been very different for some industry sectors than what we’ve seen nationally. More specifically, the transportation and warehousing sector in Virginia, unlike that of the national average, has been very flat. Not surprisingly, the government sector has been adding jobs in Virginia at both the federal and state levels, with local government hiring even seeing a small recovery of late.

“Like we’ve seen nationally, construction employment in Virginia has improved over the beginning of this year, though unlike the over-the-year losses we’ve seen nationally in construction the commonwealth has added 4,400 jobs since last year,” Stewart continued.  “Another similarity to the national average is Virginia has received a boost from its retail sector, with employment up 8,900 year-over-year through March 2011.”  

For more information on the Vantage LEI series, visit our website at www.vantageeconomics.com.

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