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Follow on Google News | Market Report, "Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011", publishedFast Market Research recommends "Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available
In terms of natural gas, the region will consume an estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 747.7bcm targeted for 2015, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 206.5bcm by the end of the period. Turkmenistan's share of consumption in 2010 is estimated to be 3.35%, while its share of production is put at 8.25%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 4.09%, with the country accounting for 9.43% of supply. For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y)). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl. For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.50/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year's level. BMI forecasts Turkmen real GDP rising by 8.5% in 2010, followed by average annual growth of 10.1% from 2010-2015. Domestic consumption trends can be expected to return to a strong growth tack from 2010 onwards, estimated at an average of 5.0% per annum. By 2015, the country could be using 158,000b/d of oil. Turkmenistan has traditionally been protective of its onshore basins, allowing international oil companies (IOCs) to participate only in offshore developments. Offshore activity should help raise national crude and gas liquids output from an estimated 220,000b/d in 2010 to 375,000b/d by 2015. Gas production is expected to increase from an estimated 65bcm to 90bcm between 2010 and 2015. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Turkmen oil and gas liquids production of 54.1%, with volumes peaking at 375,000b/d in 2015, before falling to 339,000b/d at the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption is set to increase by 62.9% between 2010 and 2020, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 201,000b/d by 2020. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 65bcm to 140bcm by 2020, providing export potential increasing from an estimated 44bcm to 96bcm. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Turkmenistan now shares 11th place with Uzbekistan in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It shares eighth place with Croatia and Uzbekistan in BMI's updated upstream ratings. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, gas reserves, and asset immaturity work in the country's favour, but are undermined by an unappealing risk environment. Scope exists for Turkmenistan to break away from its immediate rivals and to move further up the table. Turkmenistan is in the lower half of the league table in BMI's downstream ratings, with few particularly high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely over the next few quarters. Oil and gas demand growth prospects represent strong suits, putting the country in 10th place, ahead of Uzbekistan, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Slovakia. Medium-term scope exists for Turkmenistan to challenge Hungary above it. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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