New Market Research Report: France Defence & Security Report Q1 2011

Jan. 14, 2011 - PRLog -- France, like many European countries, has been scaling back defence spending as part of a programme of fiscal tightening. In 2010, BMI estimates that France's overall defence spending totalled EUR45.146, down 1.8% from EUR45.991 in 2009, as budgetary austerity measures took effect. Defence has taken a relatively bigger hit than many department, falling from 4.3% to 4.0% of overall public spending. In 2011, we forecast that defence spending will rise slightly in euro terms, by 1.0%, to EUR45.5973, or EUR722.27 per capita, taking it to 4.1% of government expenditure.

We expect defence spending to grow rather slowly over the next decade, with the euro terms growth rate remaining below 2% until 2019. In constant price terms, growth will be even slower, below 1% until 2019 (when we expect a rate of 1.23%), except a peak of 4% in 2014, when Europe's fiscal and economic recovery should be well under way, barring a serious relapse into crisis.

By 2019, BMI expects French defence expenditure to total EUR52.9153bn, or 4.3% of overall government spending - the same level as 10 years before. Throughout the forecast period, spending will remain at 2.3% of GDP, as it has done since 2007, thus remaining comfortably above the NATO recommended minimum guideline of 2%. Maintaining a well-funded military will remain a priority, but, as recent reductions in expenditure indicate, not at the expense of budgetary soundness, despite rapidly-rising spending in the developing world, including among potential strategic rivals to France's international interests.

In November 2010, France and the UK inked a landmark treaty which envisages increasing military cooperation to an unprecedented level, including the pooling of resources. The deal comes at a time of straightened budgets for both countries, and a growing realisation that armed forces must change in order to make them more effective and responsive to growing global threats, including terrorism, cyber warfare and arms races in the emerging world.

The pact aims to reduce duplication, lower development costs and consolidate some research functions, creating more streamlined forces and defence development industries in both countries. Key planks include the creation of a 10,000-strong joint expeditionary force involving 5,000 troops from each country in all three services, training and exercising together from 2011 and prepared for 'high-intensity' combat, rescue and peacekeeping missions; and the development of an integrated strike force to be deployed on either nation's aircraft carriers.

In November 2010, France said that a new deal had been agreed between the seven countries due to buy the Airbus A400M military transport aircraft. France is now due to take its first delivery in 2013. The agreement is something of a victory for France, which had been a champion of the programme as other countries got cold feet due to massive cost overruns.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- France Security SWOT
- France Defence Industry SWOT
- France Political SWOT
- France Economic SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- Global Hotspots
- Latin America: More Of The Same
- Western Europe
- Central Europe
- South Eastern Europe
- Russia And The Former Soviet Union
- Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending
- Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China
- Wild Cards
Global Security Outlook
The Future of NATO
- The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Political Overview
- Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- France's Security Risk Ratings
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Western Europe City Terrorism Index
Security Overview
- Timeline: Internal Threats
- External Security Situation
- Latest Developments
- Timeline: External Security
Armed Forces and Defence Industry
- Armed Forces
- Table: Western European Armed Forces, 2010
- International Deployments
- Table: Principal Deployments of the French Armed Forces:
- Co-ordination and Joint Operations
- Weapons of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
- Industry Trends and Developments
- Timeline: Defence and Procurement
- Arms Trade Overview
- Table: Key Players In The French Defence Industry
- Procurement Background
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Armed Forces
- Table: France Armed Forces, 2000 - 2008 ('000 personnel)
- Government Expenditure
- Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry, 2008-2015
- EXPENDITURE SCENARIO: CHANGING % OF GDP
- PERSONNEL: Manpower Availability
- Exports
- Imports
- TRADE BALANCE
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: France - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
- Dassault Aviation
- DCNS
- EADS
- Thales
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Defence Industry
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: Methodology
- Sources

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.