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Follow on Google News | China Consumer Sentiment Corrected Modestly In October After SurgeOverall China Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) corrected in October after a surge in the previous month of long holidays with a 2.6-point drop to 100.4, a mid-high level among the overall 2010 monthly readings.
The October survey results helped build a general rising trend in overall consumer sentiment in the last six months. The relatively mild drop after a strong surge was probably due to the following reason: 1) In October the GDP growth rate for the third quarter was announced to be 9.6%, which, although lower than the first and second quarter, was enough to kill pessimism about the macro economy. 2) In terms of the general prices, although the rises in agricultural products in the last few months were significant, and price rises in facilities like water, electricity and gas were already under discussion, the announced CPI remains relatively mild and will not constitute strong impacts on consumers. 3) In the real estate sector, although a series of detailed regulations for the macro control was released at the end of September, the implied message along with the release was that this round of macro control would continue in a way as mild as possible. "Given the above factors, overall consumer sentiment could be expected to remain stable in the short run although negative factors were not reduced in the long run." commented Dr. Wintone Zhang, Research Director of Hyperlink Research and Chief Analyst of China Consumer Sentiment Survey. Consumer Voices from the Survey: “Nowadays house prices are too high, and education investments are high too. And there are the rising general prices… Only salaries rise so slowly – I can’t even feel any change.” - Wuxi, Ms. Wang, Low Income Group “I feel that the economic developments are making progress in all aspects. And our living standards, as well as income are improving too.” - Hangzhou, Mr. Wang, Low Income Group “Our life is getting worse every year. General prices are rising and cost of living gets higher and higher. Yet there’s no change to our salaries. We have no money to buy a house or a car – we can’t even afford to make a loan. And our resources are decreasing.” - Shanghai, Male, Anonymous, Low Income Group About the survey: This China Consumer Sentiment Survey (CCSS) is a monthly survey of at least 1,000 Chinese households via stratified random sampling in 30 representative cities across East, Middle and West China using the same methodology as is used by the University of Michigan. The methodology was designed in association with Dr. Richard Curtin, Research Professor and Director of the Consumer Sentiment Surveys at the Institute of Social Research, University of Michigan. All data is collected via computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). Index of April 2007 survey is set as the benchmark (100). A monthly analysis report and data report are available in English and Chinese upon subscription. The CCSS is a monthly consumer sentiment survey in China to provide very timely data to the financial world and corporate sector. Compared with the National Statistic Bureau’s consumer confidence index, the CCSS provides much better data sensitivity, timeliness, and much more detailed information. It is an ideal tool for investment firms to track macro economy trends in China from a consumer point of view. The CCSS includes the following key indictors of the China market from consumer point of view: Monthly Summary: - Overall changes in monthly consumer confidence index - Regional trends in China consumer confidence - Trends in China consumer confidence in Major Cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou) Currents Conditions: - Consumer Sentiment on Personal Finances - Buying plans for Consumer Durables - Changes in income allocation patterns - Consumer Sentiment on Current Business Conditions Consumer Expectations: - Personal Finance Expectations - One-year Prospects for Business Conditions - Long-Term Business Prospects Consumer Confidence in Major Industries: - Consumer Sentiment on Stock Investment - Consumer Sentiment on Real Estate Market - Consumer Sentiment on Automobile Consumption Consumer Sentiment in Key Financial Indicators: - Employment Outlook - Price Perception & Expectations - Interest Rate Expectations For more information about the China Consumer Sentiment Survey, please contact: Shirley Yang Research Director Tracking & Syndicated Research Dept. Hyperlink Research Tel: +86 21 6193 8580 Fax: + 86 21 6193 8591 Email: shirley_yang@ Wintone Zhang, Ph.D. Research Director Tracking & Syndicated Research Dept. Hyperlink Research Tel: + 86 21 6193 8581 Fax: + 86 21 6193 8591 Email: wintone_zhang@ # # # Research Director, Hyperlink Research Responsible for the sales, marketing and promotion of China Consumer Sentiment Survey Reports and indices End
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