 Oil Consumption In Ecuador Is Set To Increase By 29.8% Between 2008 And 2018Ecuador Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009 - new market report just published
By: Mike King As regards natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 191.3bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 254.3bcm targeted for 2013, representing 32.9% growth. Estimated production of 207.4bcm in 2008 should reach 289.9bcm in 2013, and implies 35.7bcm of net exports by the end of the period. Ecuador's share of regional gas production and consumption will remain insignificant. In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. The report is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year) For the whole of 2009, the assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75/bbl in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75/bbl in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. Ecuador's real GDP is now forecast to contract by 2.3% in 2009, compared with growth of 5.4% in 2008. We are assuming a 5.5% decline in 2010, followed by growth of 3.2% in 2011, 3.7% in 2012 and 4.2% in 2013. State-owned Petroecuador co-operates with several international oil companies (IOCs) and they have between them delivered a greater volume of crude over the past couple of years. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 510,000b/d by 2013, with the country expected to pump 490,000b/d in 2009. Beyond 2009/10, consumption is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum, implying demand of 207,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The export capability would therefore be approximately 303,000b/d by 2013. Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Ecuador's oil production of 11.8%, with crude volumes rising from an estimated 510,000b/d in 2008 to a 2014 peak of 525,000b/d, before slipping to 450,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 29.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 240,000b/d by 2018. Gas production and consumption will grow only slowly from a very low base over the period. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Ecuador still ranks seventh in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating, just behind Argentina, and with a comfortable lead over Bolivia. Scores are mid-table or higher for proven oil reserves, oil and gas output growth and reserves-to- The country ranks ninth and second from last (above only Bolivia) in the Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its unusually high country risk, regulatory concerns, state ownership of assets and a less than stellar growth outlook. The score falls short of Mexico above it, but Ecuador is now 10 points ahead of Bolivia, which lies at the foot of the table. http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/ # # # Browse thousands of market research reports covering major markets, companies and countries. Www.companiesandmarkets.com is a central source of market research reports from the world’s leading analysts and report publishers. End
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