 Oil And Gas Liquids Production In Chile Is Forecast To Total No More Than 4,000b/d By 2013Chile Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009 - new market report just published
By: Mike King As regards natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 191.3bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 254.3bcm targeted for 2013, representing 32.9% growth. Estimated production of 207.4bcm in 2008 should reach 289.9bcm in 2013, and implies 35.7bcm of net exports the end of the period. Chile’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 2.61%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.65%. In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. The report is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year) For the whole of 2009, the assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. Chilean real GDP growth is now forecast at 0.1% for 2009, down from 3.2% in 2008. We are assuming 1.2% growth in 2010, 3.2% in 2011, 2.9% in 2012 and 3.5% in 2013. State oil and gas company Empresa Nacional del Petróleo (ENAP) is responsible for all domestic oil and gas production, with volumes in decline. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 4,000b/d by 2013, with the country expected to pump an average 8,000b/d in 2009. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by up to 3% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 379,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be around 375,000b/d by 2013. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 1.6bcm in 2008 to a peak of 1.8bcm in 2009/2010, falling back to 1.6bcm in 2013, with net imports of 5.2bcm required by 2013. Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Chilean oil consumption of 21.98%, with demand rising steadily from 343,000b/d to 418,000b/d. The annual growth rate is expected to slow to 2.0% towards the end of the period. Gas production is expected to peak at around 1.8bcm in 2009/2010, before declining steadily to 1.2bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 72.3% to 10bcm, this provides an import requirement rising from 3.4bcm to 7.4bcm during the 10-year period. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Chile’s outright last place in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating is achieved in spite of high reserves-to- http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/ # # # Browse thousands of market research reports covering major markets, companies and countries. Www.companiesandmarkets.com is a central source of market research reports from the world’s leading analysts and report publishers. End
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