In 2010, It Is Believed That Poland’s Construction Industry Will Grow By 5.6%

July 29, 2009 - PRLog -- Poland's infrastructure sector continues to be driven by preparations for the country's co-hosting of the UEFA 2012 European Football Championships. However, the country will not be immune to the global decline in the construction industry and therefore in the Q309 Poland Infrastructure Report we are forecasting a contraction of 3.52% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009, to reach a value of PLN230.57 (US$66.32bn).

The greatest amount of activity in Poland's infrastructure sector has been in the transport sector. A number of road contracts have been awarded relating to the two biggest road projects in the country, the A1 and the A2 highways. In April, Budimex Dromex and Mostostal Warszawa were awarded a US$438mn contract for a section of the A1, and in March, Doprastav, Polimex-Mostostal and Eurovia Polska were awarded a US$335mn contract for another section. The second phase of the A2 motorway received a boost in April when the European Investment Bank granted the Autostrada Wielkopolskia consortium a EUR1bn loan. Financial close is expected in June 2009, after which construction is expected to start. The project is due to be completed by 2012.

Another major project in the transport sector that made progress in Q209 was the expansion of Warsaw's metro system. In April, a consortium led by Italy's Astaldi (45%), Poland's PBiDM (10%) and Turkey's Gulermak (45%) was awarded the US$1bn contract for the second line of the metro; the project is due to be completed in 2013.

In comparison with the transport sector, the utilities sector has seen relatively limited activity. A number of European majors including Vattenfall, RWE and CEZ have all registered interest in Poland's utility sector. RWE signed a preliminary contract with Kompania Weglowa to construct a EUR1.5bn (US$1.95bn) coal fired power plant in April 2009, whilst at the same time announcing plans to invest US$652mn in wind farm projects in Poland.

The preparations for Euro 2012 have seen the contracts awarded for the construction of stadia. Alpine Bau along with Hydrobudowa Polska were awarded three contracts for construction projects on tournament stadia in Warsaw, Gdansk and Poznan. A contract for construction work on the Wroclaw stadium was awarded to Mostostal-Warszawa, Greece's J&P Avax and design firm MCD.

All of this activity presents an upside risk to our forecast for Poland's construction industry real growth forecast in 2009. However, the country will not be immune to the impact of the financial downturn, although it will fare better than its more northerly neighbours, the Baltics. The declining value and volume of trade, coupled with a decline in consumer-led growth will lead to a 2.7% contraction in real GDP. The drop-off in demand for residential and commercial property means that the decline in non-civil construction will pull down our growth forecasts for the construction industry as a whole, as well as reducing private sector participation due to limited access to project financing. However, the decline will be short lived, as the government continues to invest in infrastructure and the preparations for the Euro 2012 are sped up. In 2010, it is believed that Poland's construction industry will grow by 5.62% y-o-y.

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