Colombia’s Thermal Generation In 2008 Was An Estimated 11.6twh

July 28, 2009 - PRLog -- In this updated report, BMI forecasts that Colombia will account for 5.03% of Latin American regional power generation by 2013, with a modest theoretical generation surplus that may still require imports on occasion, particularly if drought conditions impact the vital hydro-power segment. BMI's Latin America power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,125 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 3.4% over the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,322twh by 2013, representing a rise of 17.6%.

Latin American thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 438twh, accounting for 38.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 530twh, implying 21.0% growth, increasing the market share of thermal generation to 40.1% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Colombia's thermal generation in 2008 was an estimated 11.6twh, or 2.64% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 2.84% of thermal generation.

For Colombia, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 34.4% of 2007 primary energy demand (PED), followed by hydro at 33.6%, gas at 23.1% and coal with an 8.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 718mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 14.7% growth. Colombia's estimated 2008 market share of 4.94% is set to rise to 5.09% by 2013. Colombia's estimated 44.5twh of hydro demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 51.0twh by 2013, with its share of the Latin America hydro market falling marginally from 7.01% to 7.00%.

Colombia is still ranked second in BMI's updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its use of renewable (mostly hydro-power) energy and relatively low energy import dependency.

Regulatory issues and privatisation progress beat the regional average and, although certain country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, the country is quite capable of keeping Chile at bay.

BMI is now forecasting Colombian average annual real GDP growth of 2.1% between 2008 and 2013, with a decline of 1.4% forecast for 2009. The population is expected to expand from 47.9mn to 51.8mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 38% and 3%, respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 46.0twh in 2008 to 51.1twh by the end of the forecast period. This results in a theoretical generation surplus, but occasional power imports will be required if electricity generation grows at our forecast rate of 3.4% per annum.

Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Colombian electricity generation of 51.2%, which is mid-range for the Latin America region. This equates to 24.0% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 17.8% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 18.3% in 2008-2013 to 24.0% in 2013-2018, representing 51.1% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 39.3% in hydro-power use during 2008- 2018 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 106.4% between 2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.

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