Thai Tourism's Political Tightrope And Signs Of Recovery

Dec. 29, 2008 - PRLog -- To reflect on Thailand's ill-fated descent into November's airport seizure and its effects on tourism, one must look back to 2006 and beyond to even get a basic grasp of its complexities and the resultant political shenanigans.

The man at the centre of all this was once set to become one of Asia's greatest leaders; a premier who was the first since 1932 to serve a full parliamentary term and then be re-elected. But now, his fortunes seem to have been torn apart at the seams.

The fallout of the 2006 military coup reached a crescendo in November this year. Daring, bizarre and totally irresponsibly, his opponents — once his erstwhile friends — marched into Suvanabhumi airport and left thousands of people stranded.

I say bizarre because some of the militants were seen practicing their golf swings and as one Dutch observer remarked of the people dressed in yellow shirts: "I thought they were football supporters." Add into the mix the news anchors who attempted to explain to the world how an ex-prime minister had been ousted for preparing chicken-bone soup and the oddness of it all that reduced Thailand into a seething political sit-com.

But not so for the 300,000 stranded tourists and the country on the brink of civil war; the 2006 coup had divided the nation into radical political camps where the stakes couldn't have been higher.

Today, and it has been put off until 5pm, the policy statement by the new Abhisit government will hopefully be read and they will then be able to assume full powers of office.

But protesters are now back on the streets surrounding parliament, this time ex-PM Mr Thaksin's supporters trying and stop the policy statement being read. Stupid really, as the constitution will allow them to form a government anyway if there are such disturbances. For the police and military, this time they are ready to stop any invasion of parliament, let alone the airport which has caused many businesses to fail.

Yes, it seems that they are partisan to a Democrat-led administration and will not allow a repeat of November's woes, where General Paochinda, the army chief, refrained from any actions to stop the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). The new PM has asked all sides to calm down in the spirit of reconciliation and it seems that renewed eruptions of violence and civil unrest are unlikely.

But let's now step back a year or more to the cause of the unrest and ask why, with the financial tsunami lapping at Thailand's ethereal shores, why the contest is still being played out even though Thailand is in desperate need to dispatch itself responsibly.

In 2006, Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted by a military coup following months of yellow-shirted protests on the streets of Bangkok, over what they allegedly viewed as policy corruption, capitalist cronyism and, of course the Temasek (to the Singapore government's direct investment arm) buyout of the PM's telecoms business. This year he was judged guilty of abuse on a land deal by his ex-wife and was sentenced to two years in prison. Subsequently the British government revoked his visa.

It was the Temasek deal that truly paved the way for the emergence of the PAD. The then-PM sold his shares in his telecoms company to Temasek and paid no tax on the $2bn deal as they were held in nominee names in the BVI, only to be sequestrated by the military government that took over power. He has been living in exile ever since.

Still, he had sufficient capital left over to finance last year's elections and appointed what the Thai press and the PAD regarded as "puppets" in this place, to run the show at his bidding. The PAD, by the way, is an oxymoron for democracy, in that they don't trust the people to elect who runs the country and want democratic elections suspended indefinitely.

Thailand has a strange set of political rules. Not only does the military have extensive interests, there is also no political ideology as we know it in the West. The Democrats are not democrats per se; the coalition partners have no particular left-right-centre leanings except to further self-interest. In fact, it's an ideological free-for-all with factions being brought into play by the highest bidder.

But as of today, with the Democrats taking full responsibility of office hopefully later this afternoon, there will be a new functioning government. How did this come about? By the king-makers. They have been instrumental in bringing the opposition into being. The army chief General Paochinda, in particlular, and Newin Chidchob who switched sides from being Mr Thaksin's most trustworthy lieutenants to form the new Democrat coalition. The horse-trading is now over and, even though it is still an "ugly" cabinet in many of its portfolios, we do now have a prime minister that has integrity and intelligence and is a man very well versed in economic matters.

Both Mr Abhisit and his finance minister, Mr Korn, attended Oxford University and have political degrees, with the finance minister having worked in the commercial world for JP Morgan. They are both heading up the economic team and have called for a Bt180bn rescue stimulus, especially targeted at tourism and other under-attack industries.

There is also the new government's reconciliatory stance and is at least talking to the pro-Thaksin red-shirted supporters. There is now some hope that, with the police and military support for this government, 2009 will be a time of economic rather than political posturing to keep the country relatively safe from the financial turmoil.

Tourist numbers have of course fallen, but this is not just because of the airport seizure; it would be folly to suggest otherwise. Roadshows are to be held in Asian countries to stimulate growth in the tourism industry and at last, there is a glimmer of hope that, although attendant in hiatus and despite the ongoing protestations which the red-shirts see as a "silent coup" by the military, that there will be political normalisation, restoration of FDI, assistance to exporters and the unemployed, fiscal stimuli and healthier governance, 2009 may well be the turning point for Thailand.

Lets' hope that no one ever again has to experience the reckless inconvenience to their holiday in Thailand for political gain that happened last month.

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