Tom Phillips' 2026 Housing Market Forecast: What You Need to Know

SAN ANTONIO - Nov. 19, 2025 - PRLog -- Where Texas Home Prices are Headed in 2026

If you're sitting around waiting for Texas home prices to "crash," go ahead and grab a snack, you're going to be waiting a while. Every major forecast for 2026 points to the same story: Texas home prices are expected to rise, just at a slower, healthier pace.

Here's the short, no-nonsense breakdown for Texas buyers and sellers.

What the Experts Say About 2026

NAR's Outlook

The National Association of REALTORS® expects:

• Home prices rising nationally by about 4% in 2026
• Sales jumping roughly 14%
• Mortgage rates drifting toward 6%

Texas typically outperforms national averages during growth periods thanks to job creation and population inflow—so a 3%–5% appreciation range is realistic for many Texas metros.

Inman's Take

Inman's reporting shows:

• No national crash, just slow growth
• Some overheated markets may flatten, but Texas is less vulnerable than coastal states

Texas has three advantages other states don't:

1.A constant pipeline of jobs (energy, tech, medical, defense)

2.Lower cost of living than major coastal markets

3.Enough land to keep building—though not fast enough to meet demand

Put that together, and Texas remains on solid footing going into 2026.

Other Forecasts

Economists surveyed by Fannie Mae project 2%–4% price growth nationally in 2026.
Texas markets—especially San Antonio, Austin suburbs, and DFW—likely land near the top of that range thanks to ongoing in-migration.

Texas Trends Behind the Forecast

1. Strong Job Growth = Strong Housing Demand

Texas continues to add jobs faster than the national average. More jobs = more people moving here = upward pressure on home prices.

2. Inventory Is Rising, But Not Fast Enough

Builders are working overtime, but with population growth still surging, supply continues to lag demand—especially in entry-level price ranges.

3. Mortgage Rates Easing Will Stir the Pot

As rates slide closer to 6%, we'll see:

• More Texas homeowners finally selling
• More buyers jumping back in
• A busier, more balanced market

This shift keeps prices climbing but prevents runaway appreciation.

What This Means for Texas Buyers

• A "wait for the crash" strategy isn't likely to pay off.
• Prices probably won't skyrocket, but they're not heading down either.
• If a home fits your payment and long-term plans, 2026 is shaping up to be a solid window.

What This Means for Texas Sellers

• 2026 should be friendlier than the past couple of years.
• You'll have more buyers, but pricing still matters—this isn't 2021.
• Well-priced homes in good condition will move quickly.

Texas Bottom Line for 2026

Expect:

• Modest price growth (3%–5% in many Texas markets)
• More inventory and more competition
• A more balanced, normal Texas market—finally

It's not a boom, not a bust. Just a stable, steady Texas housing market with room for smart moves on both sides.

How to Interpret chart on figure 11 above:

• -The FHFA index for Texas is indexed to 100 in 1980 (Q1) and tracks average home price changes over time.  
• -As of Q2 2025, Texas's index stood at ≈ 528.22.  
• -This means that since 1980, average home prices in Texas have risen roughly 5.3× (i.e., 528/100) in nominal terms.
• -The chart shows the long-term upward trend (steady growth), the run-up during the 2000s, and the post-pandemic surge.

Why This Matters for the 2026 Forecast

• -Because Texas prices are already very elevated historically, expecting double-digit gains in 2026 is unrealistic.
• -Most of the appreciation has already happened; the next phase is modest growth or stabilization, not another boom.

The takeaway: If you're BUYING, you're not "waiting for the crash" — you're waiting for good value. If you're SELLING, you'll get movement—but you'll need to price smart.