4 Super Bowl Betting Mistakes to Avoid

Jan. 31, 2015 - PRLog -- Here are a few tips from the http://www.QuantOdds.com team:

1)      Be Careful of Your Emotions

While most of you are thinking “yes, I know that”, hold on one second before moving on. There are several things to consider, with the point being glaringly obvious if you are fan of a particular team.

Your emotions go beyond loving the Patriots or Seahawks, but having other factors impacting your decision-making process. For example, watching some of the recent games might cause your emotions to kick up, in the sense that you “feel” one team looked great last week and this recency bias might potentially cloud your judgement going forward.

Even controversy like “deflategate” might cause you to subconsciously lean one way or the other.

The point isn’t that you will necessarily be biased, but admitting that there is the potential for your emotions to get in the way needs to be addressed.

The tip is to take a step back and verbalize your reasoning. In fact, talking over your points for and against a decision might be the best way to try and clear your mind of anything other than cold logic.

2)      Being A Successful Bettor is Not About Picking Winners

This is the hardest notion to teach someone, but being a successful sports gambler is much more involved than picking the team you think will win. The key is to determine which side makes sense when you consider the odds in conjunction with probabilistic calculation of potential outcomes.

Let‘s show a simple example.

Let‘s say you think the Patriots will beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Let‘s also say that you calculated all of the data and determined that it really is a close match on paper, perhaps 50-50, but you still think the Pats will be able to edge out the Seahawks.

However, you see the lines available and the game is essentially a pick-em with the Seahawks getting favorable odds of +140, what should you?

Even though you think the Patriots will win, mathematically speaking, the correct bet is with the Seahawks.

The expected value is in favor of the Seahawks (in this example only) much in the same way if someone asked you to pick heads or tails in a coin flip, with heads offering $1.40 for each dollar and tails being a $1 win – which would you choose?

If you are interested in being a successful sports bettor over the long-term, you need to understand that picking winners is not the only thing that matters, but finding odds that are mismatched with the situation at hand.

This is where your skills as a handicapper come into play, as would a service like http://www.QuantOdds.com (http://quantodds.com/) that goes deeper into the numbers than what the typical fan would do in their spare time.

In fact, this is the real advantage of sports betting versus other areas of interest, such as the financial markets. As most of us at come QuantOdds.com from the hedge fund world, we know just how competitive it is – no one would go long or short a stock, bond, currency or commodity just for fun - but in sports betting, this happens all the time!

If it wasn’t for the casual gamblers, this would be even harder than it already is, since it would pit one pro versus another. You should try to determine the probability of a sporting event, then compare that to the posted lines. In most cases the lines are very good, since there is a lot more money coming into sports wagering from professionals and that means we are moving the lines towards where they ‘should’ be – but there are still opportunities that exist, especially at events like the Super Bowl where so many casual gamblers throw a few dollars in for fun.

3)      Taking the First Line Given

This might be a bit more for the pro than the casual gambler, but lines can move quite a bit and vary from one firm to another – don’t simply lay your money down on the first one you see simply to get some money on the game!

While it does take some patience and work, again if you want to be successful over the long-run you do need to do some work – nothing comes easy, especially with regards to sports handicapping.

When the lines first come out, the sharp guys will step in and begin laying money down, causing the books to adjust. These days, more books just follow each other, so having a strategy is all the more crucial. Now, with this being the Super Bowl, this is one time that the public can really move the market.

If you have a strategy going into the Super Bowl, that for example the Patriots will win and that the game will be under the total, listen and read what the public and media are talking about. If you see a lot of pro Seahawk talk, there could be a chance that the line moves in your favour, which could entice you to bet a little initially and wait to see how the lines move.

However, with the Patriots having such a large and long-standing fan base, you also have to take that into account – the number of people that have an interest in a team will definitely play a factor in any sporting event!

In this case, it is highly likely that as soon as the lines move in favor of the Patriots, we would expect to see a lot of money flowing in – which could create an opportunity for someone who wants to back the Seahawks.

4)      A Strategy for Super Bowl Prop Bets

The real strategy is one that you aren’t going to want to hear – these Super Bowl ‘special prop’ bets are not a good idea for serious money. Since we here at QuantOdds.com are quantitative in nature, we need to see a much larger sample size before we could actually recommend such silly bets as what song will Katy Perry sing? (as a guess we’ll say Roar, but who knows)

However, there are some strategic bets you could make for the actual Super Bowl game. We would suggest taking your analysis on the game and then diving deeper to a granular look at how the events might unfold.

For example – if you think the game will be under, so one possible bet would be first half under line. Does it make sense for the first half to be under, is that more likely than the second half? We have in fact seen lower scoring in the first half, and perhaps both teams will be looking to avoid turnovers and big plays, causing even a higher probability of a lower than expected first half – and so on.

This is the type of thought process one needs to conduct to try and understand - what are the probabilities and how do they compare to the posted lines? Is there any value?

Just because you think there is a good probability that the game will be under for the first half, you shouldn’t bet on it unless the lines offer an attractive value proposition. Having said all that, it is the Super Bowl after all and if you want to throw a few dollars at what Katy Perry will be wearing, then go ahead and have some fun.

As an added bonus, we offer our services for a free trial to show you how we look at the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB.

QuantOdds Consulting Team

http://www.QuantOdds.com (http://quantodds.com/)

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