Structural Changes Determining the Outlook for the Worldwide Industrial Production - New Report

BOCHUM, Germany - Sept. 9, 2014 - PRLog -- The industrial production in the industrialized countries Germany, the 28 European Union countries, the USA and Japan offers a non-uniform picture in the first half-year: In Germany the industrial production had already slightly exceeded the pre-crisis level in 2011, however dropped again back in 2012 and 2013 and exceeded again the pre-crisis level in the first half-year 2014. In the USA the industrial production clearly exceeded its pre-crisis level for the first time in the first half-year. Still noticeable below their pre-crisis levels are Japan and the 28 European Union countries as a whole. So the process of the crisis overcoming is in full swing but still open.

This situation in the sixth year since the outbreak of the world economic crisis 2008/2009 means a new fact for the industrialized countries. Structural changes in the process of industrial production of the industrialized countries have occurred since the year 2000. A further report in the Quest Trend Magazine identifies these changes in the process of industrial production from 2000 to 2013.

Two of these structural changes mean that the duration between two economic crises, i.e. the crisis cycle, has cut in half from former times ten to five years and that the duration of the crises has exceeded from former times two years, then to three to four years since 2000 and finally to five or more years since 2008.

These structural changes are determining the current situation. It needs now five or six years (or even longer) to exceed the pre-crisis level. And the process of the crisis overcoming preserves a non-uniform character: the USA needed five years for crisis overcoming, the European Union as a whole did not succeed yet in the sixth year, Germany was already above its pre-crisis level in 2011, dropped back and lies now above pre-crisis level. Japan, the worldwide third largest economy, is still significantly below its pre-crisis level.

Also industrial production in the BRIC and in the MIST countries is showing a non-uniform character in the first half-year that combines dynamic growth (China, Turkey, Indonesia), low, tenacious growth (Russia, India, Mexico) and stagnation or decrease (Brazil, South Korea).

The report assesses this non-uniform status as the substantial characteristic in the first half-year 2014. This kind of development like in Germany, growth close to the pre-crisis level or above it, then again setback, renewed growth and again decrease - the report regards this type of development as essential for the year 2014.

The report suggests that considerably risen trade restrictions (warning of the WTO) and the increase of political tensions, currently visible at the Ukraine crisis, will continue to intensify the non-uniform development.

The link to the report, in English and German available, is http://www.quest-trendmagazine.com/en/economic-trends/wor....