"Country Forecast Cuba December 2011 Updater" added to ReportBuyer.com

Dec. 5, 2011 - PRLog -- ReportBuyer.com has added a new report http://www.reportbuyer.com/go/EIU02750

Overview

A change of leadership within the forecast period is highly likely. Although the Economist Intelligence Unit expects the transfer of power to be relatively smooth, there is no obvious candidate for the presidency among the younger generation of politicians. Even though the global outlook for 2012 is gloomy, we do not expect nickel prices (the main source of foreign exchange) to drop as sharply as in 2008-09, so the authorities should not have to resort to dramatic adjustment measures. Real GDP growth will be relatively low in 2012, at 2.4%. However, there is huge scope for catch-up, with GDP growth expected to pick up from 2013. Inflation will rise to close to double digits in 2013, assuming that the basket of goods begins to change as price subsidies are scaled back. Rising competition and output should help to reduce inflation thereafter, to 5% by end-2016. The current account is expected to remain marginally in deficit in 2012-16, but at an average 0.5% of GDP per year it will remain manageable, even taking into account limited capital inflows.
Key changes from last month
Political outlook

The publication of a public opinion survey, conducted by a US non-governmental organisation (NGO), Freedom House, has indicated a rising level of public confidence about the economic reform process. However, further progress will be necessary to allay concerns about rising prices.
Economic policy outlook

A radical reform of housing policy has been unveiled, creating a new legal housing market, in which property can be exchanged openly at a market price for the first time in 50 years. The initial impact on the public finances will be relatively minor, but over time revenue from sales taxes could rise substantially.

Country Forecast Cuba December 2011 Updater is available at:
http://www.reportbuyer.com/countries/south_america/cuba/c...

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