Central Asia - Global Flashpoint

Feb. 13, 2011 - PRLog -- Former US National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski once referred to Central Asia,

a hotbed of conflict and, in Brzezinski's view, one of the most strategically important parts of the world,

as the "Eurasian Balkans".

Today the major powers' interests in the region range from military bases for waging the war against the Taliban to oil and gas pipelines and drug prevention.

One of the most important heroin smuggling routes passes through a part of Central Asia controlled by Islamists.

For these reasons, the world is now witnessing a new version of the Great Game,

this time involving both the former players, Russia and Great Britain,

and new players, the United States, China and Iran.

  * None of the countries within their field of vision is stable,
  * eccentric dictators are in control almost everywhere,
  * corruption is rampant
  * and many nations are at odds with their neighbors.

After several coups and ethnic unrest, Kyrgyzstan is leaderless.

Kazakhstan, rich in natural resources, feels pressured by China.

Islamists in Tajikistan have renewed their fight against the regime,

and in Uzbekistan, a major cotton exporter, the opposition is brutally persecuted.

It's in the context of this neighborhood that the state of Turkmenistan has emerged as a key player in both economic and strategic terms ...

China has reached an agreement under which Turkmenistan will supply Beijing

with up to 40 billion cubic meters of gas in four years.

A declaration of intent for the construction of a giant pipeline through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India was signed last year,

although the plan will remain a fantasy unless the political situation in the region settles down.

And behind it all looms the specter of the potentially world-energy-
game-changing Nabucco pipeline.

The goal is to reduce Western Europe's energy dependency on Russia.

Construction of the 3,300-kilometer (2,050-mile) pipeline is slated to begin in 2012, at an estimated cost of €7.9 billion ($11.2 billion).

The consortium behind the project, which is to supply natural gas to Germany and other  EU countries,

and counts former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer among its consultants.

A group of European partners launched Nabucco in 2002.

The pipeline will run from Erzurum in Turkey through Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, ending at Baumgarten in Austria.

The plans call for other pipelines to be connected to the Nabucco pipeline in Turkey,

bringing gas from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, and eventually from Iraq and even Iran.

However, the massive project only makes sense if there is enough natural gas available.

Azerbaijan is expected to be one of the two main suppliers,

with an initial projected annual delivery of 8 billion cubic meters,

while Turkmenistan is to deliver 10 billion cubic meters.

But can Ashgabat deliver, is it willing to deliver, and at what price will it deliver? ...

While the West shifts its emphasis more and more toward the northern route through Central Asia to supply its troops in Afghanistan, due to unsafe conditions in Pakistan,

other countries are beginning to think about what will happen after NATO withdraws from Afghanistan and the cards are reshuffled in the region.

The Russians, in particular, are trying to gain a foothold in Central Asia once again,

but so are the Turks, Iranians, Indians and Chinese ...

India is involved in Tajikistan, where it is modernizing the former Soviet air base at Ajni west of Dushanbe.

Observers believe that New Delhi is seeking to establish its first foreign base there, as a counterweight to arch-enemy Pakistan.

But the most influential players in Tajikistan are Iran and China ...

The Chinese already have a leg up with the region's autocratic leaders.

Beijing shares the Central Asian elites' mistrust of political Islam.

And China can only maintain control over its Wild West --

w restless majority Muslim Xinjiang Province,

and its aspirations for a trans-border Greater Turkestan --

in coordination with Central Asian neighbors.

This is why Beijing helped establish an alliance that provides it with substantial influence,

the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which has the potential to become a very powerful club.

SCO was founded in Shanghai in 2001.

It includes China, Russia and all Central Asia nations as members,

except Turkmenistan, which is a "guest",

and Iran, India, Pakistan and Mongolia as observers.

Afghanistan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are also represented at SCO conferences.

The combined landmass of the club's members and observer nations makes up more than a quarter of the Earth,

while they represent more than half of the world's population.

The secretariat is in Beijing.

China seems to be the only nation with a genuine and practical vision for Central Asia:

a "new Silk Road" consisting of pipelines, new highways from the heart of the continent to the Chinese coast,

and new railway connections from Beijing to Tashkent and on to Berlin and Paris ...

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