Ireland: Grim Picture of Austerity "Strategy"

July 13, 2010 - PRLog -- 13 July 2010.

As Europe’s major economies
focus on belt-tightening, they are following the path of Ireland.

But the once thriving nation is struggling, with no sign of a rapid turnaround in sight.

Nearly two years ago, an economic collapse forced Ireland to cut public spending and raise taxes,

the type of austerity measures that financial markets are now pressing on most advanced industrial nations.

“When our public finance situation blew wide open, the dominant consideration

was ensuring that there was international investor confidence in Ireland so we could continue to borrow,”

said Alan Barrett, chief economist at the Economic and Social Research Institute of Ireland.

“A lot of the argument was, ‘Let’s get this over with quickly.’ ”

Rather than being rewarded for its actions, though, Ireland is being penalized.

Its downturn has certainly been sharper than if the government had spent more to keep people working.

Lacking stimulus money, the Irish economy shrank 7.1 percent last year and remains in recession.

Joblessness in this country of 4.5 million is above 13 percent,

and the ranks of the long-term unemployed —

those out of work for a year or more —

have more than doubled, to 5.3 percent.

Now, the Irish are being warned of more pain to come.

“The facts are that there is no easy way to cut deficits,” Prime Minister Brian Cowen said in an interview.

“Those who claim there’s an easier way or a soft option — that’s not the real world.”

Despite its strenuous efforts, Ireland has been thrust into the same ignominious category as Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.

It now pays a hefty three percentage points more than Germany on its benchmark bonds,

in part because investors fear that the austerity program, by retarding growth and so far failing to reduce borrowing,

will make it harder for Dublin to pay its bills rather than easier.

Other European nations, including Britain and Germany, are following Ireland’s lead,

arguing that the only way to restore growth is to convince investors and their own people that government borrowing will shrink.

The Group of 20 leaders set that in writing, vowing to make deficit reduction the top priority

despite warnings from President Obama that too much austerity could choke a global recovery

and warnings from a few economists about the possibility of a much sharper 1930s style downturn.

Politicians here have raised taxes and cut salaries for nurses, professors and other public workers by up to 20 percent.

About 30 billion euros ($37 billion) is being poured into zombie banks like Anglo Irish,

which was nationalized after lavishing loans on developers.

The budget went from surpluses in 2006 and 2007

to a staggering deficit of 14.3 percent of gross domestic product last year — worse than Greece.

It continues to deteriorate.

Drained of cash after an American-style housing boom went bust,

Ireland has had to borrow billions;

its once ultralow debt could rise to 77 percent of G.D.P. this year.

“Everybody’s feeling quite sick at what happened because things were going so well for Ireland,”

said Patrick Honohan, the Irish central bank governor.

“But we don’t have the flexibility to do a spending stimulus now. There’s no one who is even arguing for it.”

Ireland, as one of the 16 nations in Europe that has adopted the euro as its common currency,

is trying to shrink the deficit to 3 percent of G.D.P. by 2014,

a commitment that could weaken its hopes for recovery.

These troubles sting many Irish, given the head start Ireland has on most members of the euro club.

Its labor market is one of Europe’s most open and dynamic.

After its last major recession in the 1980s, it lured knowledge-based multinationals like Intel and Microsoft —

and now Facebook and Linked-In —

with a 12.5 percent tax rate, giving Ireland one of the most export-dependent economies in the world.

Now, the government is pinning nearly all its hopes on an export revival to lift the economy.

Falling wage and energy costs, and a weaker euro, have improved competitiveness.

Turning statistics into jobs, however, will be a herculean task.

“Exports alone don’t drive a significant number of jobs,”

said Paul Duffy, a vice president at Pfizer in Ireland.

To read more at http://www.economywatch.com’, go to: http://www.economywatch.com/economy-business-and-finance-...