July 25, 2009 -
PRLog -- Singapore’
s share of gas consumption within Asia Pacific was 1.6% in 2008, and market share is expected to rise to 2.15% by 2013. The latest Singapore Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 3.63% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while not contributing to supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.87mn b/d in 2008. It should average 25.79mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 29.12mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.41mn b/d in 2008. It is set to increase to 8.74mn b/d by 2013.In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed an estimated 440bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 551bcm is targeted for 2013. Production of an estimated 364bcm in 2008 should reach 486bcm in 2013, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 76bcm per annum in 2008 to 65bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Singapore’
s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 1.59%, and market share is expected to rise to 2.15% by 2013. There is no gas production in Singapore.In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. The report is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year)
. The BMI full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.For the whole of 2009, the assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the BMI forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008.Singapore’s real GDP growth is forecast to fall by 7.2% in 2009, compared with growth of 1.1% in 2008. We estimate 1.3% growth in 2010, 2.3% in 2011, 3.6% in 2012, followed by 3.8% in 2013.There is no domestic oil or gas production but there is an active downstream segment, with extensive international oil company (IOC) involvement in refining and petrochemicals. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 1.06mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand and imports are forecast to increase from an estimated 7.0bcm in 2008 to 11.8bcm by 2013.Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Singapore’
s domestic oil consumption from an estimated 944,000b/d to 1.22mn b/d (+29.6%), with the island’
s refining capacity rising from 1.26mn b/d to 1.65mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from around 7bcm in 2008 to a possible 17bcm by 2018, driven by power generation requirements. LNG imports are expected to commence in 2013 and reach 4bcm per annum through the initial import terminal. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.Singapore still ranks equal 11th (alongside Hong Kong) in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the limited involvement of the government in upstream oil activities and an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which partly offset the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country sits ahead of South Korea and well clear of bottom-placed Taiwan in the upstream league table. The country still ranks third in the updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its relatively high level of oil consumption, increasing gas demand, established modern refining capability, fuels export capability and a relatively low level of retail site intensity. It is just one point clear of Japan, but should be able to retain its lead.
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