Trouble brews in Thailand

Dec. 1, 2008 - PRLog -- The timing couldn't have been worse. With the onset of the tourist season this month and the world economic meltdown swirling Thailand's way, the People's Alliance for Democracy's (PAD) started a protest last week at Bangkok's airport, Suvarnabhumi, which it hoped would force the army to seize power from what they regard as the elected "puppet government" of Thaksin Shinawatra. As of today, the minister for tourism said that the number of stranded tourists has risen to 240,000.

Industry officials say the loss caused by the damage is now "incalculable" and business institutions have declared they will suspend payment of any taxes until it ends. The damage has already been calculated at Bt3bn a day and that the recovery process will take about a year. More like years. Fresh foods, electronics, jewellery and other exports are just some of the sectors of industry to take a direct hit. With tourist numbers expected to halve next year, the cost to the hotel, restaurant, entertainment and associated industries is predicted to be colossal.

Now in its third year, the PAD's has been holding rallies to protest against government corruption and abuses of power, and points the finger at Mr Thaksin Shinawatra. It took a coup two years ago to ban Thaksin's government, the Thai Rak Thai party, from politics for five years. However, it was resurrected in the form of the People Power Party (PPP) which won fresh elections last December. The Thaksin government's policies of cheap health care and microcredit won strong support from rural voters.

The problem now is that tomorrow three of the six coalition parties that make up the government look like they may be banned from politics for election rigging, even though a new party has already been established and the same politicians are likely to return to power after yet another general election.

In one of the country's English-speaking newspapers, The Nation, one headline today read: "Sporadic lawlessness spreading on both sides of conflict as Thailand is named 'one of most dangerous places on earth'". That assessment seems to verge on the abstract as the protesters are almost wholely confined to the airport(s). Still, the situation is sufficiently worrying for not just the stranded passengers and export businesses but for the country's image, now severely tarnished.

So what will this protest achieve? Not much except an inoperable business space with millions of redundancies, it seems. The PAD claims that Mr Thaksin is plotting to install a republic, which is probably untrue, but he has recently been convicted in absentia on corruption charges and is in no mood but to press on with the fight.

The PAD supporters took over Government House — which it today gave up for the airport(s) — were sitting ducks and many have been either killed or maimed in explosions this month. The military have said they will not make a move and the police have been highly ineffective in dealing with the unrest, even after the Police Commissioner-General was replaced last Friday.

The government, or at least the prime minister, has fled from Bangkok on his return from an international conference in Lima and is holed up in Chiang Mai protected by his guards. Government business has ground to a halt, Thailand's exports are crumbling and its tourist trade faces collapse. This will surely place millions of Thai workers out of work next year — and remember, Thailand is a country with no social security net.

Tomorrow will be critical as the courts may well dissolve the coalition parties for alleged vote-buying in last December's election. If so, Mr Thaksin's "redshirts" will take the show to the "royalist" yellow-shirts (the PAD), with the increasing risk of violence, if not civil war.

This horror scenario can only exacerbate the troubles, leaving Thailand in torment and innocent tourists stranded in the mire that surrounds them, with no resolution in sight.

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