Far From Being Over, Further Economic Uncertainty?

Dec. 18, 2007 - PRLog -- Last week was no different as the Dow Jones & Co reacted frantically to Fed attempts to stoke greater movement in moribund credit markets.Last weeks mixed economic readings came in a week already made busy by the Fed's decision on Tuesday to lower interest rates for the third time this year, and its part a day later in the coordinated global liquidity rescue plan. Investors have since been debating the effectiveness of such measures.

In one unwelcome development, prices of gasoline at wholesale level jumped 3.2 percent in November, the biggest increase in 34 years. But the news was not all bad last week. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose in November by the largest amount in six months, and a Labor Department report showed a drop in new claims filed by those seeking jobless benefits.

The modest movement came as investors further examined the Fed's agreement with the European Central Bank and the central banks of England, Canada and Switzerland, to combat what it described as elevated pressures in the credit markets.

The market's back and forth trading of the last couple of weeks, is likely to have kept some uneasy investors out of action, not likely to return until after the New Year.
Next week we have yet another look into the US housing market, which hasnt shown any hints of improving anytime soon. Maybe the new bailout plan, which will be freezing the mortgage rates for some of those exotic mortgages for the next 5 years, will help out some people, but its unlikely to be shown in next weeks readings.

Also next week is the final reading of the GDP and inflation. Both are potential market movers, as in the last few months rate cuts could have pushed up inflation, therefore hurting consumers and their take home pay.

For a trade this week it may be advantageous to look at a potential increase in volatility in the markets, due to the fact that most traders are going away for vacation, thus creating an overreaction for any major move.

An up or down bet on the S&P 500 with an 18 days to maturity, and 45 points away from the spot on either side, pays a potential 9% ROI. This means that the market has to move 45 points in either direction from Mondays open for you to win.

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