Free 2012 Epsom Derby Tips with Richard Dunwoody

May 30, 2012 - PRLog -- It’s the Epsom Derby this Saturday and it always seems a bit strange to me that by the first week of June, barely a few months into the new flat season, and  we’ll have already had four of the five English Classics – with just the St Leger to come in September.

But that’s how it’s always been and at least this way it gives the 3 year-olds enough time to recover for a potential tilt against the older generation in the King George later in the season and, again, enough of a break to possibly take in the Leger too.

This year’s race has been all about one horse – Camelot – as Aidan O’Brien’s 2,000 Guineas winner looks to add the Derby to his CV and keep the dream of landing the Triple Crown alive.

As we all know Nijinsky was the last horse to land all three English Classics back in 1970 and although I don’t know exactly how many have actually contested all three races the fact it’s been over 40 years since another horse has managed it indicates just how hard a feat it is to achieve.

Ironically one of the 15 horses to land the Triple Crown was called Diamond Jubilee back in 1900 – so is that an omen with the Queen celebrating her 60th year on the throne that we’ll see another horse take all three Classics?

Anyway, onto this year’s race and many will feel that Camelot just has to turn up, especially after the way he cut through the field to land the 2,000 Guineas, but at around 4/5 he’s short enough for me.

Yes, he looks a class act and based on breeding he could be even better now stepped up in trip, but Epsom is a track that doesn’t suit all horses and at those odds a lot has to be taken on trust in that respect. The furthest he’s gone to date is a mile, and with 7 of the last 10 winners having tried at least 1m2f before then those wanting to take him on will be happy to hear that.

Add in that at the time of writing (and I had to look twice at this stat too) Aidan O’Brien is actually 0-from-33 with his 3 year-olds at the track then this is a further positive for those looking elsewhere for the winner.

That said, we have seen three favourites take the UK’s richest flat race in the last 10 years, while all 10 recent winners have also been well to the fore in the betting – the last 10 have been priced 6/1 or shorter.

All of the last 10 winners had run within the last month or so, but a bigger trend could be that 80% of the last 10 came from a single-figure stall. We’ll not know the draws until Thursday, and should the current field of 12 cut up a bit more then this stat won’t apply, but should Camelot get stall 10 or higher then, again, this might be another reason to take him on.

Like most years Ballydoyle will be armed with some handy second, third and even fourth strings and many of these have run into the frame in past years. This time recent Dee Stakes winner, Astrology, could be the best of the rest - Kris Kin won that Chester race before winning the Derby in 2003.

So, I think you guessed by now that although I clearly think Camelot deserves his place at the head of the market I’m not so sure he should be as short as he is, and with that in mind I’d much rather be taking him on with both Bonfire and Main Sequence.

The first-named landed the Dante Stakes in gutsy fashion recently and the fact that race has thrown up four Derby winners in the last 8 years is a strong plus. He’s also got form that ties in with the favourite having run third to the Guineas runner-up French Fifteen back in October, but he had no luck in running that day and with a clear run would probably have won. Add in that he’s proven his stamina (more than Camelot anyway) by winning over 1m2f then he looks set to run a huge race under Jimmy Fortune.

My other fancy, Main Sequence, from the ever-improving David Lanigan yard, is still unbeaten from four starts and was most impressive last time when taking the Lingfield Derby Trial. Okay, so that race hasn’t thrown up many Derby winners in recent years, and it was run on the AW this year too, but he won over 1m2f on the turf when taking a Newmarket handicap in April and although he’s clearly got to improve again the way he travelled last time out and the turn of foot he showed could be huge assets around the tricky Epsom track.

Key Epsom Derby Betting Trends

10/10 – Ran within a month
10/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Had won a Group race before
8/10 – Won from a single-figure stall
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Had run over 1m2f before
7/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Ran in the Dante Stakes last time out
3/10 – Won by the favourite

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