New market study, "Bulgaria Petrochemicals Report 2011", has been published

Feb. 3, 2011 - PRLog -- The Bulgarian petrochemicals industry is set to begin its recovery in 2011, but there are threats to the future of polyethylene production in the country and with no plans for expansion in other segments the market will be dominated by imports, according to BMI's latest Bulgaria Petrochemicals Report.

In 2010, Bulgaria had olefins capacities of 450,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene, 80,000tpa propylene and 50,000tpa butadiene. In terms of aromatics and intermediates, it had capacities of 35,000tpa benzene, 40,000tpa styrene and 35,000tpa paraxylene. It also had capacities of 120,000tpa low density polyethylene, 80,000tpa polypropylene, 70,000tpa polystyrene and 35,000tpa styrene butadiene rubber. Bulgaria has one operational refinery, Neftochim Burgas, with a capacity of 115,000 barrels per day (b/d). However, there are doubts about the future of the company's petrochemicals units, which were shut for winter in November 2009 and not reopened in 2010. Reports emerged in September 2010 that owner Lukoil would permanently close the mothballed units, but were followed by plans announced in November 2010 that its PP plant would be brought back online. However, doubts linger over the future of PE production, which will come under intense pressure in a global market that faces saturation.

Having contracted by around 1.6% in 2010, the economic recovery is likely to pick up pace in 2011 with GDP growing 2.6%. We hold to our long standing view that the rate of economic expansion will be milder than before the international financial crisis owing to the overhang of high unemployment, deleveraging and weak bank lending. Specifically, we forecast average growth of 3.4% over 2011-2014 compared with 6.2% over 2005-2008. Much of the country's petrochemicals industry spent most of 2010 in shut-down mode as domestic demand slumped. As such, any resumption in production will be a major increase on 2010. Yet, in regional terms, Bulgaria's petrochemicals industry is a minor player and the country will remain dependent on imports, with recovery likely to benefit imports, although these will still be slow to return to pre-crisis levels.

Growth in the Bulgarian petrochemicals industry will depend on an increase in refinery capacity or gas supplies. Until upstream resources are secured, it is unlikely ethylene capacity will expand beyond the current 450,000tpa. As such, there will be no reason to believe that PE and PP capacities will rise above 120,000tpa and 80,000tpa respectively over the forecast period.

Bulgaria comes 10 out of 11 markets in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for Central and Eastern Europe. It lies 0.1 point behind Ukraine and 7.3 points ahead of Azerbaijan. While Bulgaria has a modest petrochemicals base, its regulatory environment has improved since EU accession in 2007 and risk factors are improving. Nearest rival Ukraine has a larger petrochemicals industry, but Bulgaria's access to the EU market, improving infrastructure and risk factors mean it could overtake Ukraine over the medium term. The main risk is the future of the Lukoil Neftochim plants, some of which were mothballed in 2010 and threatened with permanent closure.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/111536_bulgaria_petrochemicals...


Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Bulgarian Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
- Bulgaria Political SWOT
- Bulgaria Economic SWOT
- Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Market Overview
- Market Structure
- Table: Cracker Capacity Data and Forecasts
- Regulatory Structure
Global Overview
- Petrochemicals Market Overview
- Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2009 And 2014 ('000tonnes capacity)
- Financial Results
- Table: Financial Results Of Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2009
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2010 (US$/bbl)
- Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
European Petrochemicals Overview
- Table: Financial Results Of European Petrochemicals Producers, Q110 (EURmn)
Market Overview
Business Environment
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Bulgaria Petrochemicals Sector Forecasts, 2007-2015
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Bulgaria - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
- Lukoil Neftochim Bourgas
- Neochim
- Agropolychim
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
- Cross Checks
- Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.