Will a U.S. shooting war with Iran start in September?

July 4, 2012 - PRLog -- Israel has purportedly agreed to allow sanctions and UN negotiations to run their course before it makes a pre-emptive air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.  Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu has warned that Israel will not allow Iran to reach a “zone of immunity”,   in which its hardened site at Fordow,  near Qom,  becomes too deep underground that the Israeli air force can not destroy it with conventional bombs.   Many believe Israel will stand down until September,  before it makes plans to attack Iran.

The West is asking Iran to stop enriching uranium above 5%,  the low grade used in civilian nuclear energy,  and close its underground facility at Fordow.  Iran claims it has an “inalienable right” to enrich uranium.  There are unconfirmed reports from Tehran,  that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is preparing to announce a new target of 45% enrichment to build nuclear-powered submarines.  This would bring Iran closer to the 90% threshold required to build a nuclear weapon.  If Iran moved to 45% enrichment,  Israel would probably launch an immediate attack.

If Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities,  Iran has said it would respond by launching missile attacks against Israel and close the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has stated the closing of the Strait of Hormuz would be considered an act of war,  which could trigger a shooting war between the U.S.  and Iran.  The U.S. Naval Central Command and the Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain,  150 miles across the Persian Gulf from Iran.

During the July 3 technical meeting, between Iran and UN,  in Istanbul, Turkey,  Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired several test missiles, including a long-range variety capable of hitting U.S. bases in the Gulf.   Iran has stated if they were attacked they would retaliate against U.S. ships stationed in Bahrain.  Iran has threatened to attack Israel with the Shahab-3 ballistic missiles, and rely on Hezbollah and Hamas to attack Israel with hundreds of Katyusha rockets.  

Iran possesses a build up of anti-ship cruise missiles it has acquired from Russia and China.  The narrow Persian Gulf allows the Iranians a cross fire triangulation which places the blue water U.S. Navy at a disadvantage.  Iran has the Russian Sunburn missile, which approaches a target at twice the speed of sound and carries a 750-pound warhead capable of sinking a large navel ship.

You do not have to be Hannibal, at the Battle of Cannae,  to see the Strait of Hormuz has the potential of being a shooting gallery.  Iran has plotted and mapped every firing angle and location along the home-court coastline on the  Persian Gulf.   Iran’s fleet of fast boats could launch a Sunburn missile attack against the U.S. Fifth Fleet,  anchored in Bahrain.  The U.S. Navy Phalanx defense system may only have 2.5 seconds to calculate and fire.  This may not be enough time before impact.  The New York Times reports that U.S. war games predicts an Israeli strike on Iran will result in a regional war,  with hundreds of American military causalities.

U.S. fighter planes launched from two air craft carriers in the Indian Ocean, would give the U.S. control of the air space over the Persian Gulf.  The U.S. has stealth bombers stationed in the Gulf which could pound Iran from the air.  However,  it might take boots on the ground to totally shut down Iran’s missile attacks.  Because Iran has an active military force of 545,000 men, and an active reserve of 650,000 men,  a land battle in a mountainous country would not be advisable.  

An extended regional war in the Middle East this summer or fall,  will cause a major spike in oil prices, and most likely result in a world wide depression.  Total military causalities will probably be larger than most people expect. Deuteronomy 28:1 states that a nation which follows God’s commandments will be blessed,  and will be set high above all nations.  However,  verses 15 and 26 state a nation which does not obey God’s commandments will be defeated by their enemies.   The prophets Elijah, Hosea, and Amos warned the Jewish people that if they did not obey God,  he would remove his protective hedge.  Many modern day prophets are warning America to return back to God.   The 2012 elections may decide if the U.S. will continue down its path towards Godless socialism and secular humanism, or return to Biblical principles and belief in the God of creation.  George Washington said,  "It is impossible to rightly govern a nation without God and the Bible".



Written by Dr. Stephen Johnston, July 4, 2012, author of “Tea Party Culture War: A clash of Worldviews.”

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