Modelling and analytics needed to solve the NHS problems

Feb. 9, 2012 - PRLog -- “The NHS reform bill discussed in the House of Lords today aims to introduce possibly the biggest changes to the NHS structure since its launch in 1948, challenging the service to achieve £20 billion efficiency savings by 2014/15. While these changes were initially deemed necessary by most, their pace has been increasingly criticised by influential clinical bodies such as the British Medical Association (BMA) and the Royal College of Nursing (RCN), which fear that these massive structural changes will create confusion and destabilisation at a time where the primary focus should be on how to achieve more with less and save £20 billion.

“Savings on such a scale can only be achieved through radical changes in the way health processes and systems are designed and managed. Trial and error is not an option. Building and sizing up a new hospital or urgent care centre, procuring and rolling out new telecare or telehealth equipment, or reconfiguring long-term care and other services must be based on evidence. A more scientific, systematic and systemic approach needs to be taken.

“Operational research (Modelling) and analytics, the sciences of doing “more with less” and of “analysis” of complex systems have to be part of the solutions. While modelling and analytics are used as standard and have led to billions of savings in other sectors such as transport and defence, they are rarely used in the health services. Using predictive modelling to determine the risk of admission or readmission to hospital is a good start but it needs to be followed by the use of computer models to determine which services should be offered to minimise costs or to improve the patient experience. Only a few millions invested in these approaches could lead to billions of efficiency savings for the NHS.”

The Health and Social Care Modelling Group at the University of Westminster has been developing and applying modelling and analytics approaches for health and social care improvements since 1997. For further information, please visit http://www.westminster.ac.uk/research/a-z/health-and-soci...

For further information or to interview Professor Thierry Chaussalet, contact the University of Westminster team at Broadgate Mainland on 020 7726 6111 (Westminster@broadgatemainland.com).

Notes to editors:
Professor Thierry Chaussalet is member of the Cumberland Initiative (www.cumberland-initiative.org) and MASHnet (www.mashnet.info).

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