The "Arab spring" will be expensive. The economies of the countries of the Middle East and Maghreb where peoples rebelled will seriously slow down or even contract this year.
The main affected country is Libya. War with colonel Gaddafi has led to a total shutdown of oil production. However, the hydrocarbons represent 95% of its exports, and 70% of its gross domestic product (GDP). Consequently, the Libyan economy expected to contract by more than 50% in 2011.
Tunisia and Egypt, where the regimes in power have been overthrown will be heavily affected by the fall of tourist flows and foreign investment. Tunisian growth is expected to be sluggish this yea. The Egyptian economy which progressed over the past decade of 4 to 7% per year should advance only 1.2%.
Two other countries where people tried to rebell are threatened with recession. Syria, the GDP should fall back to 2% this year. In Yemen, the decline in activity should be of 2.5% in 2011 and 0.5% in 2012
These predicted recessions in these countries will have definitely an impact on international trade and on the import and export industriy.
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