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Market Report, "Romania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2011", published

New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

 
PRLog - Jun. 25, 2011 - BMI View: While we maintain our growth forecast of 9.3% for 2011, we highlight increasing risks to our projections, with delays of payments to pharmacists from the Casa Nationala de Asigurari de Sanatate, (National Health Insurance House, CNAS) now increasingly likely to force the closure of pharmacies and affect the consumption of medicines in 2011 and 2012. Furthermore, we highlight that the lack of funds making their way to pharmacies is restricting finances higher up the supply chain and are resulting in extensive delays in payments to pharmaceutical producers operating in Romania. Despite our projections for continued strong growth, we stress the difficulties in the current business environment, which will limit the attractiveness of the market to new investment in the short term.

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Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/171513_romania_pharmaceuticals...
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Headline Expenditure Projections:

* Pharmaceuticals: RON11.93bn (US$3.76bn) in 2010 to RON13.04bn (US$4.48bn) in 2011; +9.3% in local currency terms and +19.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in local currency terms maintained from Q211.
* Healthcare: RON23.39bn (US$7.37bn) in 2010 to RON24.04bn (US$8.26bn) in 2011; +2.8% in local currency terms and +12.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in local currency terms unchanged from Q211.
* Medical devices: RON1.35bn (US$426mn) in 2010 to RON1.45bn (US$498mn) in 2011; +7.3% in local currency terms and +17.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast down due to analyst modification.

Business Environment Rating: Romania's score in BMI's proprietary Business Environment Ratings (BERs) remains stable and unchanged, despite the identification of further risks to our projections in March 2011. Medium-term projections for strong growth have been maintained, translating into stability in our BER analysis.

Key Trends & Developments

* Our projections that Romania's pharmaceutical market will continue to see high-single-digit growth into 2011 have now been confirmed. Romania's pharmaceutical market grew by 8.3% to RON2.69bn (US$951mn) at distribution prices in Q111, but significantly below the 17.3% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2010.
* Driven by underfunding in public healthcare provision, Romania's private health system is expected to expand aggressively over the next five years. Private substitution is a critical component of the sector's development as restricted access to publicly-funded medical services drives patients towards private insurance and hospitals. BMI also highlights the potential for public-private partnerships to support the provision of public medical services in the long term.
* The amount owed by the Romanian Health Ministry and the Romanian Health Insurance House (CNAS) to pharmacies and distributors for drug reimbursement has reached RON1.92bn (US$656.59mn), according to Viorel Vasile, president of the Romanian Association of Drug Distributors. The total outstanding debt involves RON935mn (US$319.78mn) for fully and partially reimbursed drugs, while drugs reimbursed within therapeutic programmes comprises RON438mn (US$149.8mn). The CNAS has refused to pay RON550mn (US$188.13mn) to pharmacies and distributors.
* The Romanian government is introducing new regulations pertaining to demographic limitations on the opening of new pharmacies. While this may benefit established pharmacies by reducing competition, it may lead to reduced access to medicine and subsequently affect consumption. The new regulation restricts the opening of new pharmacies in Romania to one for every 3,000 citizens in Bucharest, every 3,500 in cities which are county capitals and every 4,000 in other locations in the country.

BMI Economic View: We forecast the Romanian economy to emerge from its two-year long recession in 2011 and make a steady return to growth. The spectacular performance of Romanian exports through recent months, and the concurrent surge in domestic industrial activity, will be central to this recovery, offsetting ongoing austerity by the government. We forecast 2011 growth at 2.1%, and expect the economy to accelerate to a 3.7% expansion in 2012.

BMI Political View: Despite public discontent with the fiscal austerity and economic reform being implemented by the coalition government, we do not expect a political crisis to befall Romania in 2011. However, we believe the current coalition looks set to suffer defeat in the 2012 parliamentary elections, which we expect to result in a reconstituted coalition government.About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

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Source:Fast Market Research
Phone:1.800.844.8156
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State/Province:Massachusetts - United States
Industry:Health, Medical, Research
Tags:pharmaceutical, Healthcare, medicines, hospitals, drug, delays, over the counter, out of pocket, payment, romanian
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