"Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q3 2011" now available at Fast Market Research

May 22, 2011 - PRLog -- Based on the latest data from mobile operators, BMI estimates there were 222.738mn subscribers in Indonesia at the end of 2010. We continue to expect the country's mobile penetration rate to exceed 100% in 2011 and foresee a slight slowdown in the mobile growth momentum to push Indonesia's total mobile subscriber base to 357.632mn in 2015. Meanwhile, we also envisage the number of fixed lines in Indonesia to continue to expand in spite of the broader global trend of declining fixed-line subscriptions. This is largely due to the emergence of affordable fixed-wireless, which is popular among rural regions in Indonesia's fragmented landscape. Although we forecast the number of fixed-line subscribers to trend upwards, there is considerable potential to revise our forecasts downward if the fixed-to-mobile subscriber migration accelerates.

However, we remain concerned at the heavy reliance on prepaid subscribers, which has a significant negative impact on operators' ARPU. The average ARPU of Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata and Bakrie Telecom fell to IDR33,175 in December 2010 and BMI expects this number to continue to trend downwards in light of the aggressive competition of rural expansions. The profitability of operators remains relatively unaffected due to high subscriber growth, but this could take a turn for the worse when the mobile market becomes saturated.

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We were able to paint a clearer picture of Indonesia's mobile market in this quarter's update. Besides concrete subscriber data from Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata and Bakrie Telecom, Hutchison CP Telecommunications announced it had 16mn mobile subscribers in Indonesia at the end of 2010. Similarly, Axis said it had 8mn subscribers in November 2010 and this number increased to more than 10mn by March 2011. Meanwhile, two of the smallest operators in the country Mobile-8 and Smart Telecom had about 3.5mn and 2.5mn subscribers respectively in 2010. Meanwhile, Mobile-8 and Smart Telecom officially merged in March 2011, and Smart Telecom will operate as a subsidiary under Smartfren, which had about 6.2mn subscribers in March 2011. The new entity aims to challenge its larger rivals by setting an ambitious target of 12.4mn subscribers and 1,500 base transceiver stations by end-2011.

Indonesia remained in 10th position in BMI's latest Business Environment Rating for the Asia-Pacific region. Indonesia is one of the more attractive emerging markets in the region in terms of its Industry Rewards score due to the subscriber growth prospects arising from its population size. Further, we expect the country to grow by 5.9% in 2011 after a stellar real GDP growth of 6.1% in 2010. However, we note political stability and corruption remains a pertinent concern, which could erode investor confidence.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Indonesia Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Business Environment SWOT
- Indonesia Mobile Business Environment SWOT
- Indonesia Political SWOT
- Indonesia Economic SWOT
- Indonesia Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
- Asia
- Indonesia
- Table: Asia Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mobile
- Table: Mobile Historical Data And Forecasts
- ARPU
- Table: ARPU Historical Data And Forecasts
- Fixed Line
- Table: Fixed Line Historical Data And Forecasts
- Internet
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
- Mobile
- Market Overview
- Table: No. Of Mobile Subscribers (Q410)
- Subscriber Divisions
- Prepaid
- Postpaid
- ARPU
- 3G
- Mobile Contract Wins
- Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2010
- Mobile Content
- Regional Outlook
- Country Outlook
- SMS
- Table: Telkomsel SMS Messages Sent (bn) Vs Revenues Per SMS (IDR)
- Mobile Broadband
- Mobile TV
- Other Content
- Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2008-2009
- Mobile Operator Data
- Table: Indonesia Mobile Market Overview
- Table: Telkomsel
- Table: Indosat
- Table: Excelcomindo
- Table: Bakrie Telecom
- Fixed-Line
- Fixed-Wireless
- Table: Major Fixed-Wireless Operators - Number Of Subscribers (mn)
- Broadband
- Telkom Looks At IPTV
- Prepaid Mobile Broadband Services
- Submarine Cable Deployments
- WiMAX
- Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments
- Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2009
Regulatory Environment
- Indonesia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Interconnection
- Universal Service Obligation (USO)
- Regulatory Development
- Industry Development
Competitive Landscape
- Key Players
- Table: Indonesia Telecoms Sector Key Players
- Table: Key Operators Financial Indicators, 2002-2009
Company Monitor
- Ericsson
- Table: Selected Developments In The Asia Pacific Region
Operator Profiles
- Telkom
- Telkomsel
- Indosat
- XL Axiata (Formerly Excelcomindo Axiata)
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
- Mobile
- Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
- Fixed-Line
- Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
- Broadband
- Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
- Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
- Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Ratings System
- Indicators
- Table: Ratings Indicators
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Sources

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.