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Follow on Google News | New Market Research Report: Qatar Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 392bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 482bcm targeted for 2015, representing 23.0% growth. Production of an estimated 467bcm in 2010 should reach 612bcm in 2015 (+31.0%), which implies net exports rising to 130bcm by the end of the period. Qatar in 2010 consumed an estimated 6.25% of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 8.30% by 2015. It contributed an estimated 28.91% to 2010 regional gas production and, by 2015, will account for 28.61% of supply. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. Qatar's real GDP rose by an estimated 15.9% in 2010, with average annual growth of 10.0% forecast for 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 218,000b/d in 2010 to 291,000b/d in 2015. State-owned Qatar Petroleum (QP) negotiates exploration and production (E&P) agreements, shares in upstream projects, and has 50% of oil and 40% of gas production. It has signed agreements with many of the leading international oil companies (IOCs), particularly for gas development and export projects. Our estimates assume 1.71mn b/d of 2011 oil and liquids production, rising to 1.87mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production should reach 175.0bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 135.0bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 24.5bcm to 40.0bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing for exports of 135.0bcm. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Qatari oil and gas liquids production of 25.6%, with volumes rising steadily to 2.06mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 79.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 6.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 390,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 135bcm to 194bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2020 demand growth of 125%, this provides an export capability rising from an estimated 111bcm to 139bcm. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Qatar now shares second place with Israel behind only the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country holds outright first place, two points ahead of the UAE, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings. We see little risk over the short term of Qatar having its position challenged, thanks largely to the country's extraordinary gas wealth. The country's score benefits from a sound country risk profile, healthy output growth prospects, high reserves-to- For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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