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Follow on Google News | Recently released market study: Thailand Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011Fast Market Research recommends "Thailand Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 493bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 647bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 412bcm in 2010 should reach 548bcm in 2015, implying net imports rising from around 81bcm to 99bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Thailand's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been 8.12%, while its share of production is 7.77%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.84%, with the country accounting for 6.02% of supply. Preliminary data suggest that the 2010 full-year outturn will have been US$77.38 per barrel for OPEC crude, which is expected to have delivered North Sea Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averages of around US$79.40/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. The oil market is now in a bullish mood, in spite of the economic uncertainty facing the world in 2011. Global GDP growth in 2011 should exceed 3%, but is unlikely to match the level seen in 2010. Slower economic expansion in China and Japan is set to undermine a potentially unchanged rate of growth in the US and eurozone. Oil prices seldom reflect underlying macroeconomic trends, but the case for surging energy demand and spiralling fuel costs is far from convincing. Ample oil inventories and increasing OPEC supply are likely to keep the price of crude in check - and we are sticking with our forecast of an average US$80/bbl for the OPEC basket. BMI forecasts that 2010 growth in Thai real GDP will have been 7.5%, and we forecast an average annual increase of 4.6% in 2010-2015. State-controlled PTTEP and international oil company (IOC) partners are working hard to secure domestic oil and gas volumes, with only limited success in terms of crude oil. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 287,000b/d by 2015, although the country is expected to have pumped 345,000b/d in 2010. We expect consumption to increase by up to 2% per annum in 2010-2015, implying demand of 1.08mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 795,000b/d by 2015. End-period gas consumption of an estimated 50.7bcm outstrips likely supply of 33.0bcm. We are forecasting a 36.6% reduction in Thai oil production between 2010 and 2020, with crude volumes falling steadily to 222,000b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 21.30%, with growth slowing to less than 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.19mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 32bcm in 2010 to a peak of 34bcm in 2011-2013, before slipping to 28bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 58.7%, this will require imports to rise to 35.5bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found at the back of this report. Thailand holds 12th place, above South Korea and Hong Kong, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table. It holds 10th place, behind China and Indonesia, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting a modest resource position, moderate gas growth outlook and an IOC-friendly competitive environment. Thailand ranks eighth in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its above-average gas demand and relatively low level of retail site intensity. It is just one point below Indonesia and Australia in the league table, but may struggle to overtake them. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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