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Follow on Google News | New Market Research Report: Cameroon Agribusiness Report Q1 2011New Food and Beverage market report from Business Monitor International: "Cameroon Agribusiness Report Q1 2011"
Key Industry Forecasts * Our short-term forecast for Cameroon's cocoa industry envisages a 3.6% rise in cocoa production in 2010/11; this will raise total output to almost 222,000 tonnes. Over the long term, we expect the industry to benefit from a combination of better crop management techniques and private and public sector investment. In the five years to 2014/15, we predict that cocoa production will grow by 34.9% to surpass 267,000 tonnes. * In 2010/11, we predict that Cameroon will expand its coffee output by 5.4% to produce almost 901,000 60kg bags of coffee. In the five years to 2014/15, we anticipate robust growth for the sector, with coffee production expected to rise by 33.5%. Our strong growth expectations reflect the considerable support which the industry is currently receiving from the government and other sources. * Cameroonian sugar production is predicted to increase by 13% in 2010/11 and by an impressive 85.3% the five years to 2014/15. Our strong growth expectations reflect the increased investment in the sector, as well as growing competition. Although output should be sufficient to meet demand, Cameroon will continue to face shortfalls due to the high price of sugar and the problems associated with sugar smuggling, both of which are distorting market dynamics. * Our newly extended grains outlook for Cameroon anticipates steady growth in the production of both corn and sorghum in the five years to 2014/15. The output of grains will average at around 3.3% per year, in the case of corn, and 3.4 per year, in the case of sorghum. Over our forecast period, total corn output will increase by 17.5% to 1.09mn tonnes. Meanwhile, sorghum output will expand by 18.1% to reach 676,000 tonnes. Key Macroeconomic Forecasts: * Cameroon Real GDP Growth 2010 Forecast: 2.6% (up from 1.9% in 2009). * Cameroon Unemployment Rate 2010: 8.0% (7.0% in 2009). * Consumer Price Inflation: 1.5% y-o-y (average for 2010), up from 3.1% average in 2009. Industry Developments Our newly extended forecast for Cameroon's cocoa industry envisages a return to positive production growth in 2010/11. This follows a 3.5% fall in output which occurred in the twelve months ending July 2010. In 2010/11, we expect production to rise by 3.6% year-o-year (y-o-y) to reach a total output of 205,100 tonnes. Over the longer-term, BMI remains optimistic about output growth from Cameroon's cocoa industry. Among other things, the sector is benefiting from a substantial increase in government investment. However, we highlight a number of risks which could weigh negatively on our short-term supply forecast. These include a new outbreak of disease in the south west of Cameroon and the prospect of rising cocoa exports from Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana. In September 2010, it was announced that Cameroon would provide farmers with more than XAF1bn worth of chemicals to combat pests and diseases affecting the country's cocoa and coffee crops. Growers in the south west of the country have said a persistent period of rainy weather could spread disease and damage the next harvest. According to reports, the government will aim to ensure that at least half of all cocoa and coffee plants (out of an estimated total of 600,000 hectares of cultivated land) will be sprayed. Cocoa experts have said that output from the south west growing region, which accounts for half of Cameroon's cocoa output, could drop 10% in 2010/11 as a result of black pod infection. Meanwhile, BMI is predicting the resumption of strong international demand for cocoa on the back of healthier economic growth and falling global prices. While we forecast an impressive 3.2% y-o-y increase in global cocoa consumption in 2011, we believe that demand should be outstripped by greater production. Although Cameroonian exporters potentially stand to benefit from rising global demand, they will have to work hard to compete against regional giants Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana, the world's two largest producers responsible for two thirds of all cocoa production; both countries are expected to see an increase in output in 2010/11. Ironically, we suggest that this could have the effect of discouraging Cameroonian producers who may struggle to compete against West Africa's two leading exporters. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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