New Market Research Report: Argentina Shipping Report Q1 2011

Nov. 8, 2010 - PRLog -- Argentina's maritime sector is one of several industries whose immediate future will depend to a large extent on the outcome of the country's general elections, which are scheduled for the end of the year. After 2009's collapse in approval ratings, president, Cristina Fernandez Kirchner's administration regained some of its lost popularity through deficit spending, but the money will eventually run out and a necessarily painful fiscal tightening cannot be postponed forever. Analysts believe the crunch moment may come either just before or just after the presidential elections, which are due to take place in October. Such a crisis would inevitably lead to lower growth or potentially an outright 'double dip' recession which would hit trade demand, impacting on shipping and port services.

Meanwhile, while the risk of return to the hyperinflation and currency collapse of the early 2000s appears remote, there is due concern across many sectors, including shipping and freight transport about rising inflation levels, despite the best attempts of the government to paper over the figures. This has already led to disruption among port workers who in Q210 went on strike in demand for an increase in wages to match the rising cost of food and other household goods.

Kirchner's poor record of international diplomacy has also awakened concern from the shipping perspective. In September 2010, Argentina found itself embroiled in a dispute with neighbouring Uruguay over the latter's plans to expand the port of Montevideo on the River Plate Estuary over fears that it would drive traffic away from terminals in the Buenos Aires area. Meanwhile, China's 2009 import ban on Argentine soybean oil continued to grated on both the country's faming and maritime industries. Tensions only eased after President Kirchner made a trip to Beijing over the summer, and the ban was finally lifted in October 2010.

Argentina's uncertain political and economic climate places a considerable degree of downside risk for our short and longer-term shipping forecasts. In 2011, Argentina's two most important ports, Buenos Aires and Bahia Blanca, are both forecast to report moderate growth after a solid recovery in 2010 from the previous year's contraction. At the port of Buenos Aires (POBA), in 2011 BMI is predicting total tonnage throughput to increase by 3.3%, some way short of 2010's estimated 9.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth. A similar pattern is expected at the Port of Bahia Blanca (POBB) where tonnage volumes are expected to grow by 2.2% in contrast to 2010's 12.1% expansion. Our medium-term forecasts point to a slightly more robust growth picture with POBA and POBB expected to recover average annual throughput growth of 4.5% and 3.1% respectively.

In the container sector, we predict Buenos Aires container movements to rise by 3.2% to 1.02mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), and to achieve average annual growth of 4.5%, between 2011 and 2014. At Bahia Blanca we are predicting an 8% increase to 77,389TEUs, which is some-way short of last year's 56.2% surge. Thereafter, medium-term average annual growth is expected to remain stable, averaging 8.3% between 2011 and 2014. Argentina's total trade (imports + exports) grew by a healthy 7.4% in 2010 as the country emerged strongly from the global economic downturn. BMI's trade outlook for the country in 2011 errs on the side of caution, with both imports and exports forecast to grow by a more moderate 4% y-o-y.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Argentina Shipping SWOT
Global Overview
- Container Shipping Overview
- Dry Bulk Shipping Overview
- Liquid Bulk Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
- Market Overview
- Port of Buenos Aires
- Overview
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
- Port of Bahia Blanca
- Overview
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
- Table: Major Port Data
- Table: Trade Overview
- Table: Key Trade Indicators
- Table: Main Import Partners
- Table: Main Export Partners
Company Profiles
- A.P. MOLLER-MAERSK
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
- CSAV Shipping
- China Shipping (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
- Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)

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