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Follow on Google News | Market Report, "Slovenia Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010", publishedNew Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 638.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 728.8bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.1% growth. Production of an estimated 788.4bcm in 2010 should reach 936.4bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 149.8bcm in 2010 to 207.5bcm by the end of the period. Slovenia has no significant share of regional gas consumption or production. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year's level. Slovenian real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 2.0% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.9% in 2010-2014. Beyond the expected weakness of 2009/2010, oil consumption growth is forecast at an annual rate of 3%, reaching 71,000b/d by 2014. Gas consumption reached an estimated 1.0bcm in 2009, with up to 0.4bcm being produced from domestic sources. Demand is expected to have reached 1.3bcm by 2014, with domestic production potentially down to 0.2bcm and imports totalling 1.1bcm. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Slovenian oil consumption of 34.3%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 61,000b/d to 82,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to climb from an estimated 1.0bcm to 1.7bcm by 2019, met largely by imports of 1.6bcm. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Slovenia now takes 15th and last place, behind Croatia and Slovakia, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It occupies 15th and last place in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, thanks to its extremely limited hydrocarbons resources. Its score is six points below that of nearest rival, the Czech Republic, but the growth outlook for oil and gas is unimpressive and comes from an exceptionally low base. Country risk factors work in Slovenia's favour, but there is little chance of an improvement capable of taking it past the other regional laggards. Slovenia is near the bottom of the league table in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment ratings, holding 12th place, above Slovakia. There are no particularly high scores and progress further up the rankings seems unlikely over the medium term. There are poor scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, population and nominal GDP. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Partial Table of Contents: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis - Slovenia Political SWOT - Slovenia Economic SWOT Slovenia Energy Market Overview Global Oil Market Review - Drifting With the Tide - Quarterly Trends - Deepwater Turbulence Global Oil Market Outlook - Waiting For the Wind to Change - Oil Price Forecasts Oil Supply, Demand and Price Outlook - Short-Term Demand Outlook - Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) - Short-Term Supply Outlook - Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) - Longer-Term Supply And Demand - Oil Price Assumptions - Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010 - Table: Oil Price Forecasts Regional Energy Market Overview - Oil Supply and Demand - Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) - Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) - Oil: Downstream - Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) - Gas Supply and Demand - Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) - Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) - Liquefied Natural Gas - Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) Business Environment Ratings - Central/Eastern Europe Region - Composite Scores - Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating - Upstream Scores - Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating - Slovenia Upstream Rating - Overview - Slovenia Upstream Rating - Rewards - Slovenia Upstream Rating - Risks - Downstream Scores - Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating - Slovenia Downstream Rating - Overview - Slovenia Downstream Rating - Rewards - Slovenia Downstream Rating - Risks Business Environment - Legal Framework - Infrastructure - Labour Force - Foreign Investment Policy - Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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