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Follow on Google News | "Israel Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010" is now available at Fast Market ResearchNew Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed 379.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 481.4bcm targeted for 2014, representing 22.1% growth. Production of 407.2bcm in 2009 should reach 588.9bcm in 2014 (+26.2%), which implies net exports rising to 108.0bcm by the end of the period. Israel, in 2010, consumes an estimated 0.68% of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 1.45% by 2014. It contributes 0.21% to estimated 2009 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 1.19% of supply. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year's level. Israel's real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 3.4% in 2010, with forecast average annual growth of 2.9% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 254,000b/d in 2010 to 269,000b/d in 2014, although the state would like to minimise dependency on imports and exploit fully the country's modest gas resources. A lack of serious upstream prospects and limited international oil company (IOC) participation mean Israel is likely to continue importing virtually all the oil needed to supply its domestic refineries. Israeli gas production has risen following the start-up of the Tethys Sea project, with up to 1bcm of current supply available. Gas imports could be as high as 2bcm per annum by 2011, before easing as domestic volumes rise. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Israeli oil consumption of 14.3%, with demand rising steadily from an estimated 254,000b/d to 290,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Refining capacity between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 59.1%, reaching 350,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to climb from an estimated 1bcm to a maximum of 10bcm. With 2010-2019 demand growth of 241%, this provides an import requirement peaking to 2bcm in 2011, before being replaced by rising domestic supply. Details of the BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Israel ranks third, just behind the Qatar, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country holds fourth place in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, in spite of the state's limited upstream potential. Bahrain below has the medium-term potential to challenge for fourth place. Israel's score benefits from the lack of state involvement in the upstream segment, the licensing terms and privatisation progress, plus the healthy country risk outlook. The overall score is dragged down by the lack of hydrocarbon resources and growth prospects. Israel currently leads the league table in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment rating, with a few high scores but limited potential to retain regional leadership over the longer term. It is four points ahead of Iran, thanks largely to excellent country risk factors that outweigh a modest showing in terms of oil/gas demand, oil demand growth and likely refining capacity expansion. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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