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Follow on Google News | Iran Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010: New research report available at Fast Market ResearchRecently published research from Business Monitor International, "Iran Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010", is now available at Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed 379.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 481.4bcm targeted for 2014, representing 22.1% growth. Production of 407.2bcm in 2009 should reach 588.9bcm in 2014 (+26.2%), which implies net exports rising to 108.0bcm by the end of the period. Iran consumes an estimated 34.24% of the region's gas in 2010, with its market share forecast at 33.28% by 2014. It contributes an estimated 30.00% to 2010 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 30.56% of supply. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year's level. Iran's real GDP is forecast by BMI to rise by 2.1% in 2010, and we are assuming average annual growth of 3.0% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 1.76mn b/d in 2010 to 1.99mn b/d in 2014, almost matching the underlying rate of economic expansion. The state-owned National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) is responsible for all upstream oil and gas activities, although there is some smallscale participation by international oil companies (IOCs) on a subcontractor basis. The lack of large-scale IOC investment contributes to modest output growth, with crude production forecast to increase from an estimated 4.19mn b/d in 2010 to 4.38mn b/d in 2014, subject to OPEC quotas and the possible impact of sanctions resulting from the nuclear energy debate. Gas production should reach 180bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 140bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from 135bcm to 160bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing export potential of almost 20bcm. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Iranian oil production of 11.0%, with crude volumes rising towards 4.65mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period, although there will have been an OPEC-induced dip in 2009/10. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 27.3%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 2.24mn b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to climb to 250bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2019 demand growth of 42.3%, this provides export potential rising to 58bcm by 2019. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Iran ranks fifth, just ahead of Bahrain, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It holds sixth place in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings. Iran is three points behind Bahrain, in spite of a score benefiting from the region's biggest gas reserves base and a very healthy oil reserves position. Reserves-to- For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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