Egypt Power Report Q2 2010: New research report available at Fast Market Research

April 17, 2010 - PRLog -- The new Egypt Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 9.80% of the Middle East and Africa (MEA)'s regional power generation by 2014, with a modest theoretical generation surplus. BMI 's MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,264 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 5.4% over the previous year. We forecast an increase in regional generation to 1,659TWh by 2014, a rise of 31.3% between 2009 and the end of the forecast period. Regional thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 1,158TWh, accounting for 96.5% of the total electricity supplied in the MEA. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,523TWh, implying 31.5% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 97.6% - thanks in part to environmental concerns about promoting renewables, hydroelect ricity and nuclear generation. Egypt's thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 113TWh, or 9.74% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 8.95% of thermal generation. For Egypt in 2008, gas was the dominant fuel, accounting for 49.5% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 43.9% and hydro with a 5.3% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 929.8mn toe by 2014, 25.1% growth over the period from 2009. Egypt's estimated 2009 market share of 10.29% is set to ease to 10.11% by 2014. Egypt's estimated 18.1TWh of hydro generation in 2009 is forecast to be 22.1TWh by 2014, with its share of the regional hydro market falling from 48.6% to 41.4%. Egypt is ranked third in BMI 's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its market size and high proportion of renewables (hydropower) use. While the regulatory environment is not particularly attractive, the power sector is modestly competitive, with some progress towards privatisation. Egypt has been overtaken by Qatar and the UAE, as predicted, and stands little chance of regaining regional leadership during the next few quarters. BMI forecasts Egyptian real GDP growth averaging 4.94% a year between 2010 and 2014, following a 2009 estimate of 4.70%. Population is expected to expand from 77.7mn to 84.1mn, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita to increase by 72% and 18%, respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 117TWh in 2009 to 149TWh by 2014, while theoretical surplus capacity will be 14TWh by 2014, assuming 4.1% av erage annual growth in electricity generation. Between 2009 and 2019 we forecast an increase in Egyptian electricity generation of 48.7%, towards the middle of the range for MEA. This equates to 21.8% during 2014-2019, down slightly from 22.2% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to be 21.1% in 2014-2019, down from the 22.8% expected for 2009-2014, representing 48.7% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 55% in hydropower use in 2009-2019 is an important element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 43% between 2009 and 2019. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.

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